Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 7 2009/2010

Mexico

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

CD Arganda play Mexico in the Tercera Division - Group 7 2009/2010. It looks like a close match. Recently, CD Arganda averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Mexico averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, CD Arganda won 2, Mexico won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 28, 2010 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for CD Arganda and 1.18 for Mexico. This points to a Mexico double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%

CD Arganda

31%

Draws

35%

Mexico

Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Mexico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

CD Arganda picked up more points recently compared to Mexico.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 1.18 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 61%

Over 3.5 Goals 37%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%

CD Arganda Clean Sheet 20%

Mexico Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	CD Arganda	Mexico
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	6	11
Draws	10	9
Losses	14	12
Goals Scored	1.1	1.31
Goals Conceded	1.7	1.5

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 7

CD Arganda vs Mexico

Possession: 54% - 53% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Dec 20, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 7

Mexico vs CD Arganda

Possession: 45% - 46% Cards: 3 - 4

0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Arganda 35 / 100

Mexico 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

CD Arganda Mexico

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mexico or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +30.9%

3.85

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.82

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

CD Arganda attacking → ← attacking Mexico

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Arganda scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Mexico let in goals in 81% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

CD Arganda went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Mexico lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

28 Points in last 5 42

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rayo Vallecano B	38	25	10	3	68:23	85
2	Parla	38	21	11	6	65:33	74
3	Getafe B	38	20	10	8	77:41	70
4	Trival Valderas	38	21	6	11	77:45	69
5	CF Fuenlabrada	38	20	8	10	52:33	68
6	Real Madrid C	38	18	10	10	59:43	64
7	Navalcarnero	38	17	6	15	49:48	57
8	CD Mostoles	38	15	11	12	52:42	56
9	Rayo Majadahonda	38	16	6	16	46:47	54
10	AD Colmenar	38	16	5	17	53:54	53
11	Atl. Madrid C	38	14	10	14	55:51	52
12	San Fernando de Henares	38	14	8	16	42:58	50
13	San Sebastian Reyes	38	14	8	16	57:57	50
14	Atletico Pinto	38	12	11	15	43:62	47
15	Vallecas CF	38	12	10	16	46:51	46
16	Mexico	38	10	13	15	46:53	43
17	CD Arganda	38	9	12	17	40:61	39
18	Santa Ana	38	8	6	24	38:73	30
19	CD Ciempozuelos	38	6	6	26	36:80	24
20	Galactico Pegaso	38	6	5	27	27:73	23