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Stadium Background

CD Ariznabarra vs Tolosa

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tolosa in this Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tolosa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
CD Ariznabarra
15%
Draws
0%
Tolosa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: CD Ariznabarra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • CD Ariznabarra haven't matched Tolosa's recent run of results.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on CD Ariznabarra taking it.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Tolosa have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
CD Ariznabarra Clean Sheet 68%
Tolosa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Ariznabarra Tolosa
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 5 8
Draws 9 3
Losses 16 21
Goals Scored 0.9 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.57 2.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.79 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs CD Ariznabarra
4:0
Apr 18, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Ariznabarra vs Tolosa
1:2
Feb 9, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Ariznabarra vs Tolosa
2:1
Sep 18, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs CD Ariznabarra
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Ariznabarra 77 / 100
Tolosa 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Ariznabarra Tolosa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Ariznabarra Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tolosa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Difficult form: Tolosa registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

CD Ariznabarra's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Tolosa
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 2.38
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Ariznabarra

(Home)
12 Jun
CD Ariznabarra
2 : 3
Balmaseda
05 Jun
Somorrostro
1 : 1
CD Ariznabarra
29 May
CD Ariznabarra
5 : 1
Urgatzi
22 May
Tolosa
4 : 0
CD Ariznabarra
16 May
CD Ariznabarra
1 : 2
Aurrera Ondarroa
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Tolosa

(Away)
29 Apr
Tolosa
3 : 4
Santutxu FC
23 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 1
Tolosa
13 Apr
Tolosa
2 : 3
Lagun Onak
09 Apr
CD Vitoria
3 : 2
Tolosa
02 Apr
Tolosa
1 : 4
Amurrio Club
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