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CD Badajoz vs Jerez CF

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
CD Badajoz Logo

CD Badajoz

5 - 4
FT
Jerez CF Logo

Jerez CF

Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Pavon A.
7' Event
Gomez Moreno J. J.
18' Event
Arias C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between CD Badajoz and Jerez CF finished 5-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Badajoz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
CD Badajoz
20%
Draws
33%
Jerez CF
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CD Badajoz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and CD Badajoz come out ahead of Jerez CF on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on CD Badajoz taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
CD Badajoz Clean Sheet 68%
Jerez CF Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Badajoz Jerez CF
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 20 8
Draws 5 12
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 2.03 1.72
Goals Conceded 0.76 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.96
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Badajoz vs Jerez CF
5:4
Nov 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs CD Badajoz
0:0
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs CD Badajoz
3:2
Dec 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Badajoz vs Jerez CF
1:1
Jan 29, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Badajoz vs Jerez CF
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Badajoz Compare

Top Goalscorer Pavon A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alegria A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Jerez CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomez Moreno J. J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Arias C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Badajoz 68 / 100
Jerez CF 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Badajoz Jerez CF

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Badajoz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jerez CF has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

CD Badajoz scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

CD Badajoz has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

CD Badajoz VS Jerez CF
1.38 Goals Scored 0.8
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.2
88% Over 1.5 60%
38% Over 2.5 40%
13% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Badajoz

(Home)
27 Sept
Las Palmas B
0 : 0
CD Badajoz
20 Sept
CD Badajoz
0 : 1
Betis B
13 Sept
Xerez CD
1 : 2
CD Badajoz
06 Sept
CD Badajoz
2 : 1
Tenerife B
30 Aug
Pueblonuevo
0 : 5
CD Badajoz
Page 1 of 6

Jerez CF

(Away)
27 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Jerez CF
20 Sept
Jerez CF
1 : 2
Castuera
13 Sept
Cabeza del Buey
0 : 1
Jerez CF
06 Sept
Jerez CF
2 : 2
Puebla de la Calzada
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)