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CD Badajoz vs SP Villafranca

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

CD Badajoz play SP Villafranca in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. It looks like a close match. Recently, CD Badajoz averaged 2 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. SP Villafranca averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, CD Badajoz won 4, SP Villafranca won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 8, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.01 for CD Badajoz and 1.18 for SP Villafranca. This points to a CD Badajoz double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
CD Badajoz
19%
Draws
29%
SP Villafranca
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: CD Badajoz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • CD Badajoz picked up more points recently compared to SP Villafranca.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.01 vs 1.18 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
CD Badajoz Clean Sheet 20%
SP Villafranca Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Badajoz SP Villafranca
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 22 14
Draws 5 6
Losses 3 10
Goals Scored 2 1.3
Goals Conceded 0.7 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Badajoz vs SP Villafranca
1:0
Sep 28, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs CD Badajoz
0:2
Mar 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Badajoz vs SP Villafranca
2:1
Oct 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs CD Badajoz
0:2
Aug 10, 2024 Club Friendly
SP Villafranca vs CD Badajoz
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Badajoz Compare

Top Goalscorer Pavon A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

SP Villafranca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.69
Avg xA / game 1.03

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Badajoz 51 / 100
SP Villafranca 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Badajoz SP Villafranca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: CD Badajoz or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18%
2.27
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

CD Badajoz attacking → ← attacking SP Villafranca

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Badajoz scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

SP Villafranca let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

CD Badajoz went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

SP Villafranca lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

71 Points in last 5 48
2.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.86
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.14

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Don Benito34218570:2271
2CD Badajoz34235664:2771
3Moralo341711654:3262
4CD Azuaga34188853:3162
5Jaraiz341611753:3359
6Cabeza del Buey341512745:2957
7SP Villafranca341671145:4055
8Villanovense341581145:3653
9Montijo341371443:4246
10Jerez CF34817956:5141
11AD Llerenense341181535:4441
12Puebla de la Calzada349111435:4838
13Santa Amalia34971830:5234
14Gevora34891732:5333
15Pueblonuevo34961929:5533
16CD Diocesano346121633:6330
17Montehermoso34582124:6623
18CD Calamonte343131825:4722