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CD Barquereno vs Guarnizo Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
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Match Events

30' Event
Cagigas M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 game between CD Barquereno and Guarnizo finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guarnizo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
CD Barquereno
15%
Draws
64%
Guarnizo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guarnizo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Guarnizo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Guarnizo have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
CD Barquereno Clean Sheet 12%
Guarnizo Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Barquereno Guarnizo
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 8 17
Draws 6 7
Losses 17 6
Goals Scored 1.16 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.81 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Barquereno vs Guarnizo
0:1
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs CD Barquereno
2:1
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Barquereno vs Guarnizo
5:3
Dec 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs CD Barquereno
3:0
Jun 13, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Barquereno vs Guarnizo
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Barquereno Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Guarnizo Compare

Top Goalscorer Cagigas M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Barquereno 30 / 100
Guarnizo 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Barquereno Guarnizo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarnizo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

CD Barquereno scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Guarnizo's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Guarnizo has conceded goals in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

CD Barquereno VS Guarnizo
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Barquereno

(Home)
27 Sept
CD Barquereno
0 : 2
Bezana
20 Sept
Torina
3 : 0
CD Barquereno
13 Sept
CD Barquereno
0 : 1
Velarde
05 Sept
UD Samano
2 : 2
CD Barquereno
09 May
CD Barquereno
1 : 5
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
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Guarnizo

(Away)
26 Sept
Guarnizo
3 : 1
Velarde
20 Sept
UD Samano
4 : 1
Guarnizo
12 Sept
Guarnizo
0 : 1
Cayon CD
06 Sept
Atletico Mineros
2 : 1
Guarnizo
24 May
CD Tropezon
3 : 0
Guarnizo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)