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CD Diocesano vs Montijo Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
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Match Events

43' Event
Trinidad J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between CD Diocesano and Montijo finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Diocesano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
CD Diocesano
20%
Draws
44%
Montijo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Montijo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • CD Diocesano haven't matched Montijo's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Montijo a 44% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
CD Diocesano Clean Sheet 10%
Montijo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Diocesano Montijo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 10
Draws 9 6
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 0.87 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Montijo
1:0
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs CD Diocesano
1:1
Mar 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs CD Diocesano
1:1
Oct 20, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Montijo
2:3
May 14, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Montijo vs CD Diocesano
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Diocesano Compare

Top Goalscorer Trinidad J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Montijo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Diocesano 26 / 100
Montijo 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Diocesano Montijo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montijo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montijo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Attacking prowess: CD Diocesano scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Solid form: CD Diocesano remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

CD Diocesano VS Montijo
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Diocesano

(Home)
10 May
CD Diocesano
4 : 4
SP Villafranca
03 May
Don Benito
8 : 1
CD Diocesano
26 Apr
CD Diocesano
0 : 0
Santa Amalia
19 Apr
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
CD Diocesano
12 Apr
CD Diocesano
2 : 1
Gevora
Page 1 of 6

Montijo

(Away)
27 Sept
Villanovense
2 : 0
Montijo
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
13 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Montijo
06 Sept
Montijo
1 : 3
Cabeza del Buey
10 May
Montijo
2 : 1
Santa Amalia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)