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CD Montanas del Pas vs Castro Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
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Match Events

58' Event
Revuelta V.
78' Event
Diliberto M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 game between CD Montanas del Pas and Castro finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Montanas del Pas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
CD Montanas del Pas
30%
Draws
29%
Castro
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CD Montanas del Pas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Castro carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 29% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
CD Montanas del Pas Clean Sheet 17%
Castro Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Montanas del Pas Castro
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 6 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 1.03 1.14
Goals Conceded 2.37 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Montanas del Pas vs Castro
2:0
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs CD Montanas del Pas
9:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Montanas del Pas Compare

Top Goalscorer Revuelta V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diliberto M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Castro Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Montanas del Pas 36 / 100
Castro 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Montanas del Pas Castro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

CD Montanas del Pas found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Castro conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: CD Montanas del Pas stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CD Montanas del Pas VS Castro
1.14 Goals Scored 0.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
86% Over 1.5 50%
29% Over 2.5 38%
14% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Montanas del Pas

(Home)
09 May
CD Montanas del Pas
3 : 7
UM Escobedo
03 May
Vimenor
2 : 0
CD Montanas del Pas
25 Apr
CD Montanas del Pas
2 : 0
CD Tropezon
18 Apr
UC Cartes
0 : 1
CD Montanas del Pas
11 Apr
CD Montanas del Pas
1 : 1
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
Page 1 of 6

Castro

(Away)
27 Sept
Castro
0 : 2
Atletico Mineros
19 Sept
CD Revilla
2 : 2
Castro
13 Sept
Castro
2 : 0
Solares
06 Sept
Selaya
0 : 0
Castro
09 May
Castro
0 : 2
CD Tropezon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)