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CD Montuiri vs Atletico Rafal

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Tercera Division - Group 11 2013/2014
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AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 11 2013/2014 game between CD Montuiri and Atletico Rafal finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico Rafal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
CD Montuiri
30%
Draws
23%
Atletico Rafal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CD Montuiri

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • CD Montuiri carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives CD Montuiri a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 11 2013/2014 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
CD Montuiri Clean Sheet 20%
Atletico Rafal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Montuiri Atletico Rafal
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 4
Draws 7 9
Losses 9 17
Goals Scored 1.56 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.28 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
CD Montuiri vs Atletico Rafal
4:1
Nov 30, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Atletico Rafal vs CD Montuiri
0:4
Jan 26, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
CD Montuiri vs Atletico Rafal
1:2
Aug 31, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Atletico Rafal vs CD Montuiri
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Montuiri 85 / 100
Atletico Rafal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Montuiri Atletico Rafal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Montuiri Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico Rafal let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.75 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: CD Montuiri scored in 72% of their last 32 outings.

Difficult form: Atletico Rafal registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CD Montuiri VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Montuiri

(Home)
15 May
UD Poblense
6 : 1
CD Montuiri
08 May
CD Montuiri
1 : 1
Mercadal
01 May
Formentera
3 : 0
CD Montuiri
24 Apr
CD Montuiri
1 : 0
Ferriolense
16 Apr
Campos
2 : 0
CD Montuiri
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Atletico Rafal

(Away)
17 May
UD Poblense
9 : 1
Atletico Rafal
09 May
Atletico Rafal
2 : 2
CD Son Cladera
03 May
El Espinar Sant Rafel
1 : 0
Atletico Rafal
26 Apr
Atletico Rafal
2 : 2
Mercadal
18 Apr
CD Montuiri
4 : 1
Atletico Rafal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mallorca B 38 25 8 5 90:27 83
2 Pena Deportiva 38 24 8 6 75:33 80
3 Formentera 38 24 8 6 58:27 80
4 Binissalem 38 18 13 7 56:31 67
5 Mercadal 38 19 8 11 55:53 65
6 UD Poblense 38 17 13 8 60:35 64
7 Alcudia 38 16 12 10 59:41 60
8 Penya Ciutadella Esportiva 38 17 3 18 47:51 54
9 Llosetense 38 15 9 14 54:53 54
10 Manacor 38 14 11 13 63:62 53
11 Collerense 38 16 5 17 60:60 53
12 Platges de Calvia 38 12 13 13 41:40 49
13 Campos 38 12 11 15 51:54 47
14 Ferriolense 38 12 9 17 41:50 45
15 Atletico Rafal 38 10 12 16 42:65 42
16 El Espinar Sant Rafel 38 10 10 18 47:60 40
17 CD Montuiri 38 10 8 20 42:53 38
18 Rotlet Molinar 38 11 4 23 43:84 37
19 Felanitx 38 6 8 24 27:65 26
20 Santanyi 38 2 7 29 26:93 13
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2013/2014 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2013/2014 (Main)