Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CD Mosconia vs Covadonga

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-0. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
CD Mosconia
20%
Draws
64%
Covadonga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Covadonga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Covadonga come out ahead of CD Mosconia on wins alone.
  • CD Mosconia are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Covadonga arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Covadonga, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Covadonga have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
CD Mosconia Clean Sheet 14%
Covadonga Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Mosconia Covadonga
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 18
Draws 5 5
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.07 2.34
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs CD Mosconia
2:1
May 17, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
CD Mosconia vs Covadonga
0:0
Apr 2, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
CD Mosconia vs Covadonga
1:2
Nov 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs CD Mosconia
1:0
Feb 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
CD Mosconia vs Covadonga
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Mosconia 41 / 100
Covadonga 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Mosconia Covadonga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Mosconia's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Covadonga registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Covadonga conceded in 48% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

CD Mosconia VS Covadonga
0.63 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Mosconia

(Home)
29 Aug
CD Mosconia
1 : 4
Real Oviedo B
15 Aug
CD Mosconia
0 : 2
Real Aviles
24 May
Covadonga
2 : 1
CD Mosconia
17 May
CD Mosconia
0 : 0
Covadonga
10 May
Navarro
3 : 1
CD Mosconia
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Covadonga

(Away)
29 Aug
Gijon Industrial
0 : 0
Covadonga
05 Aug
Real Oviedo B
6 : 0
Covadonga
07 Jun
Covadonga
2 : 4
Caudal Deportivo
31 May
Caudal Deportivo
2 : 1
Covadonga
24 May
Covadonga
2 : 1
CD Mosconia
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Covadonga 2
CD Mosconia 1
Gijon B 1
Caudal Deportivo 2
Final
Covadonga 3
Caudal Deportivo 6