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CDFC La Calzada vs Haro Deportivo

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Tercera RFEF - Group 16 encounter between CDFC La Calzada and Haro Deportivo promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. CDFC La Calzada averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded in recent matches. Haro Deportivo shows a form average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for CDFC La Calzada, 1 wins for Haro Deportivo, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 26.04.26 ended in a 0:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.06 for CDFC La Calzada and 2.00 for Haro Deportivo, suggesting the primary value lies in the Haro Deportivo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
CDFC La Calzada
32%
Draws
38%
Haro Deportivo
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Haro Deportivo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • CDFC La Calzada picked up more points recently compared to Haro Deportivo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
CDFC La Calzada Clean Sheet 10%
Haro Deportivo Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CDFC La Calzada Haro Deportivo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 8 9
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.07 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

26.04.26 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
CDFC La Calzada vs Haro Deportivo
0:0
21.12.25 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Haro Deportivo vs CDFC La Calzada
3:4
16.03.25 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
CDFC La Calzada vs Haro Deportivo
1:3
03.11.24 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Haro Deportivo vs CDFC La Calzada
0:0
10.02.24 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Haro Deportivo vs CDFC La Calzada
0:2

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

CDFC La Calzada

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Haro Deportivo

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)
Attacking Style Keep the ball
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CDFC La Calzada 29 / 100
Haro Deportivo 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CDFC La Calzada Haro Deportivo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Haro Deportivo or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

CDFC La Calzada 33%
Haro Deportivo 30%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

CDFC La Calzada 29%
Haro Deportivo 40%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

CDFC La Calzada 30%
Haro Deportivo 38%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

CDFC La Calzada 32%
Haro Deportivo 36%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

CDFC La Calzada 27%
Haro Deportivo 42%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

CDFC La Calzada 35%
Haro Deportivo 44%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

CDFC La Calzada attacking → ← attacking Haro Deportivo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CDFC La Calzada have found the net in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Haro Deportivo have conceded at least one goal in 67% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.60 goals per match.

CDFC La Calzada remained undefeated in 4 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Haro Deportivo suffered defeat in 1 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 45
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1UD Logrones B34268099:2286
2Varea34227551:2573
3Arnedo34219472:2672
4CD Calahorra341712586:2663
5Oyonesa34187954:4161
6Anguiano34179849:3660
7Haro Deportivo341491154:4651
8Agoncillo341381359:4947
9Vianes341191439:5142
10Yague349131248:5240
11San Marcial341091539:5939
12Berceo341091542:5039
13CDFC La Calzada341081640:5538
14Comillas CF341151832:5838
15Pradejon34981730:4935
16Villegas34772036:6628
17Autol34462420:8018
18Pena Balsamaiso340112327:8611