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CEAC/Araruama vs Bangu Prediction & H2H Stats

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Carioca 2 2025 Estadio Lourival Gomes, Saquarema
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-0. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
CEAC/Araruama
30%
Draws
29%
Bangu
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CEAC/Araruama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bangu come out ahead of CEAC/Araruama on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans CEAC/Araruama's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Bangu arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Bangu, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Bangu have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
CEAC/Araruama Clean Sheet 68%
Bangu Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CEAC/Araruama Bangu
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 12
Draws 8 9
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 0.83 1
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.27
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2025 Carioca 2
Bangu vs CEAC/Araruama
1:0
Aug 3, 2025 Carioca 2
CEAC/Araruama vs Bangu
0:0
Jun 8, 2025 Carioca 2
CEAC/Araruama vs Bangu
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CEAC/Araruama 59 / 100
Bangu 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CEAC/Araruama Bangu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CEAC/Araruama Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bangu let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

CEAC/Araruama went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

CEAC/Araruama scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 0.67 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

CEAC/Araruama VS Bangu
1 Goals Scored 0.8
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.4
75% Over 1.5 80%
63% Over 2.5 20%
25% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

CEAC/Araruama

(Home)
22 Jul
Boavista
4 : 0
CEAC/Araruama
15 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
0 : 1
Boavista
08 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
2 : 1
Sao Cristovao
04 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 1
Cabofriense
27 Jun
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 0
Olaria
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Bangu

(Away)
22 Jul
Bangu
1 : 1
Olaria
15 Jul
Olaria
2 : 0
Bangu
07 Mar
Botafogo RJ
3 : 1
Bangu
27 Feb
Volta Redonda
1 : 1
Bangu
20 Feb
Bangu
1 : 0
Volta Redonda
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Sao Goncalo 3
Olaria 0
Bangu 1
CEAC/Araruama 0
Final
Sao Goncalo 1
Bangu 3