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Ceara vs Floresta EC

Brazil Brazil

Cearense Castelão, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Matheusinho
Assist: Wendel Silva
12'
Marco Antonio
24' Event
Bismark
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-0, with Ceara advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Ceara
30%
Draws
34%
Floresta EC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ceara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Ceara carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Ceara taking it.
  • Ceara have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Ceara, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Ceara have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Ceara Clean Sheet 68%
Floresta EC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceara Floresta EC
Matches Played 38 32
Wins 17 9
Draws 10 11
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 0.63 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Cearense
Ceara vs Floresta EC
4:0
Feb 15, 2026 Cearense
Floresta EC vs Ceara
0:3
Jan 10, 2026 Cearense
Floresta EC vs Ceara
0:1
Jan 27, 2024 Cearense
Ceara vs Floresta EC
1:0
Apr 11, 2019 Cearense
Ceara vs Floresta EC
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Wendel Silva
2 Goals
Assists Leader Matheusinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Floresta EC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceara 46 / 100
Floresta EC 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceara Floresta EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ceara scored in 76% of their last 38 outings.

Floresta EC let in goals in 63% of their last 32 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Ceara has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ceara VS Floresta EC
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceara

(Home)
26 Jul
Sao Bernardo
3 : 4
Ceara
22 Jul
Ceara
0 : 1
CRB
17 Jul
America MG
1 : 1
Ceara
13 Jul
Ceara
0 : 0
Athletic Club
04 Jul
Goias
2 : 0
Ceara
Page 1 of 8

Floresta EC

(Away)
27 Jul
Floresta EC
1 : 1
Maringa FC
11 Jul
SER Caxias do Sul
0 : 0
Floresta EC
04 Jul
Guarani
0 : 0
Floresta EC
27 Jun
Floresta EC
2 : 1
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
21 Jun
Brusque
2 : 1
Floresta EC
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Ferroviario0
Fortaleza4
Floresta EC0
Ceara7
Final
Fortaleza3
Ceara2
Ferroviario1
Floresta EC0