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Ceara vs Jacuipense

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Castelão, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Gabriel Pereira
6' Event
Pereira G.
17'
Giulio

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-1. This leg finished 4-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Ceara
35%
Draws
26%
Jacuipense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ceara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Ceara at 1.2 per game, Jacuipense at 1.
  • Ceara are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Ceara, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Ceara Clean Sheet 20%
Jacuipense Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceara Jacuipense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 8 9
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.2 1
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.01 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 15, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Ceara vs Jacuipense
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Giulio
1 Goals
Assists Leader Julio Cesar
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.51

Jacuipense Compare

Top Goalscorer Pereira G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceara 42 / 100
Jacuipense 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceara Jacuipense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Ceara's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Jacuipense let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Ceara has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ceara VS Jacuipense
0.63 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.4
75% Over 1.5 80%
38% Over 2.5 40%
0% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceara

(Home)
19 Aug
Nautico
1 : 0
Ceara
15 Aug
Ceara
1 : 3
Cuiaba
07 Aug
Ceara
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
26 Jul
Sao Bernardo
3 : 4
Ceara
22 Jul
Ceara
0 : 1
CRB
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Jacuipense

(Away)
28 Jun
Treze PB
0 : 0
Jacuipense
21 Jun
Jacuipense
1 : 3
Treze PB
14 Jun
Jacuipense
1 : 1
ASA
31 May
CSA
1 : 1
Jacuipense
24 May
Jacuipense
2 : 2
Juazeirense
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