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Ceilandia vs Samambaia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2025
Ceilandia Logo

Ceilandia

1 - 1
FT
Samambaia Logo

Samambaia

Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Saavedra G.
72' Event
Pedro Bambu
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense 2025 game between Ceilandia and Samambaia finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Ceilandia
35%
Draws
41%
Samambaia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Samambaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Samambaia haven't matched Ceilandia's recent run of results.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Samambaia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 12%
Samambaia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceilandia Samambaia
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 11 6
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.32 1.33
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Ceilandia
2:1
Mar 8, 2025 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Samambaia
1:1
Feb 24, 2024 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Ceilandia
0:3
Feb 26, 2023 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Ceilandia
3:0
Apr 10, 2021 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Samambaia
8:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceilandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Bambu
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Samambaia Compare

Top Goalscorer Saavedra G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceilandia 10 / 100
Samambaia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceilandia Samambaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samambaia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceilandia scored in 84% of their last 37 games.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Defensive concern: Samambaia conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Ceilandia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ceilandia VS Samambaia
1 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.25
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceilandia

(Home)
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2
Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1
Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1
Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3
Ceilandia
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Samambaia

(Away)
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
12 Feb
ARUC
0 : 3
Samambaia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brasiliense 9 7 1 1 15:4 22
2 Capital 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Ceilandia 9 6 1 2 12:8 19
4 Gama 9 5 2 2 7:4 17
5 Paranoa 9 5 0 4 13:11 15
6 Sobradinho 9 3 3 3 9:6 12
7 Samambaia 9 3 2 4 9:8 11
8 Real Brasilia 9 1 2 6 6:15 5
9 Ceilandense 9 1 2 6 8:18 5
10 Legiao 9 0 1 8 3:20 1
Promotion - Brasiliense 2025 (Play Offs)