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Celaya vs Montaneses

Mexico Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés, Celaya
Celaya Logo

Celaya

1 - 0
FT
Montaneses Logo

Montaneses

Our Tip

Match Events

71' Event
Varela J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Celaya in this Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Celaya.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Celaya
20%
Draws
28%
Montaneses
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Celaya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Celaya lately — more wins on the board than Montaneses.
  • Celaya are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Celaya Clean Sheet 14%
Montaneses Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celaya Montaneses
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 15 14
Draws 5 4
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.93 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Montaneses vs Celaya
5:1
Nov 16, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Celaya vs Montaneses
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Celaya Compare

Top Goalscorer Varela J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Montaneses Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celaya 39 / 100
Montaneses 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celaya Montaneses

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Celaya Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Celaya scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Celaya stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Montaneses's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Celaya VS Montaneses
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Celaya

(Home)
29 Aug
Pioneros
0 : 3
Celaya
26 Apr
Cimarrones de Sonora
2 : 2
Celaya
23 Apr
Celaya
2 : 1
Cimarrones de Sonora
18 Apr
Leones Negros 2
1 : 2
Celaya
16 Apr
Celaya
5 : 0
Leones Negros 2
Page 1 of 6

Montaneses

(Away)
30 Aug
Montaneses
1 : 1
Deportiva Venados
10 Apr
Heroes de Zaci
1 : 0
Montaneses
29 Mar
Montaneses
5 : 1
Celaya
21 Mar
Chapulineros
0 : 2
Montaneses
15 Mar
Montaneses
1 : 3
Racing de Veracruz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alacranes de Durango 26 21 2 3 71:16 74
2 Tigres de Alica 26 17 3 6 46:25 56
3 Cimarrones de Sonora 26 15 7 4 46:19 54
4 Leones Negros 2 26 16 2 8 42:26 53
5 Tecos 26 14 4 8 49:34 49
6 Tritones Vallarta 26 15 1 10 32:27 46
7 Mineros de Fresnillo 26 11 4 11 40:41 39
8 Los Cabos United 26 11 3 12 37:40 37
9 Guerreros de Autlan 26 8 5 13 38:42 32
10 UA Zacatecas 26 8 4 14 32:49 29
11 Ensenada FC 26 8 2 16 30:55 28
12 Reboceros de La Piedad 26 7 1 18 39:66 23
13 Zapotlanejo 26 6 1 19 39:73 21
14 Colima FC 26 4 3 19 24:52 17
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Apodaca 26 21 2 3 47:19 66
2 FC Santiago 26 14 7 5 43:21 51
3 Zacatepec 26 12 8 6 29:15 45
4 Halcones de Zapopan 26 11 6 9 44:27 44
5 Calor De San Pedro 26 12 7 7 37:26 44
6 Gavilanes de Matamoros 26 12 5 9 31:22 44
7 Lobos ULMX 26 11 6 9 33:28 40
8 Correcaminos 2 26 9 7 10 27:25 36
9 Chilpancingo 26 9 8 9 33:41 35
10 Cordobes FC 26 8 6 12 29:30 30
11 Zitacuaro 26 6 10 10 22:31 28
12 CS Canamy 26 5 8 13 33:53 26
13 Ciervos 26 4 4 18 20:50 18
14 Atletico Hidalgo 26 4 4 18 22:62 16
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing de Veracruz 24 21 3 0 55:9 71
2 Deportiva Venados 24 15 4 5 61:25 52
3 Tapachula 24 13 0 11 51:35 44
4 Celaya 24 12 4 8 42:32 43
5 Inter Playa Del Carmen 24 13 4 7 35:28 42
6 Montaneses 24 12 2 10 35:28 38
7 Pioneros 24 10 3 11 35:35 35
8 Jaguares De Chiapas 24 9 4 11 33:32 34
9 Heroes de Zaci 24 10 2 12 33:46 34
10 Chapulineros 24 5 8 11 21:33 23
11 Canoneros FC 24 7 1 16 25:49 22
12 Neza FC 24 5 2 17 25:73 19
13 Dragones Toluca 24 4 3 17 21:47 17
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)