Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Celje vs Aluminij

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Stadion Z'dezele, Celje
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Celje host Aluminij in the Prva liga. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Celje have averaged 1.71 scored and 1.25 conceded recently, against Aluminij's 0.96 scored and 1.33 conceded. Head-to-head, Celje have won 4 to Aluminij's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Sep 2, 2026, ending 0:2. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.63) point toward Celje. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Celje
30%
Draws
39%
Aluminij
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aluminij

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Celje have won more games recently than Aluminij.
  • Model gives Aluminij a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Prva liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Celje have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Celje Clean Sheet 14%
Aluminij Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celje Aluminij
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 12 6
Draws 7 9
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.71 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 2, 2026 Prva liga
Aluminij vs Celje
0:2
Apr 26, 2026 Prva liga
Celje vs Aluminij
5:0
Mar 5, 2026 Prva liga
Aluminij vs Celje
2:1
Nov 1, 2025 Prva liga
Celje vs Aluminij
2:1
Aug 17, 2025 Prva liga
Aluminij vs Celje
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celje 11 / 100
Aluminij 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celje Aluminij

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aluminij Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Celje scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Aluminij conceded in 78% of 27 recent games.

Solid form: Celje remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Celje VS Aluminij
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Celje

(Home)
20 Sept
Mura
0 : 0
Celje
16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0
Celje
12 Sept
Bravo
2 : 1
Celje
06 Sept
Celje
0 : 1
Koper
02 Sept
Aluminij
0 : 2
Celje
Page 1 of 6

Aluminij

(Away)
19 Sept
Maribor
2 : 2
Aluminij
13 Sept
Mura
1 : 6
Aluminij
05 Sept
Aluminij
0 : 0
Bravo
02 Sept
Aluminij
0 : 2
Celje
28 Aug
Aluminij
0 : 1
Koper
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maribor 10 5 5 0 19:8 20
2 Koper 10 5 3 2 11:8 18
3 Bravo 10 5 3 2 12:10 18
4 O. Ljubljana 10 4 2 4 10:8 14
5 Aluminij 10 3 4 3 16:11 13
6 Nafta 10 4 1 5 17:16 13
7 Celje 9 3 3 3 11:11 12
8 Grosuplje 10 3 2 5 14:18 11
9 Mura 10 2 3 5 10:21 9
10 Radomlje 9 1 2 6 9:18 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)