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Stadium Background

Celje vs Nafta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Stadion Z'dezele, Celje
Sun, Nov 1, 2026
VS
04:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Celje host Nafta in the Prva liga. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Nafta have shipped 1.28 goals a game lately, while Celje have conceded 1.21 and scored 1.69. Past meetings favor Celje slightly — 4-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 15, 2026, ending 1:3. xG projections (1.38 - 1.13) back Celje to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Celje
15%
Draws
51%
Nafta
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nafta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Nafta carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Celje here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Celje Clean Sheet 20%
Nafta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celje Nafta
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.69 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Prva liga
Nafta vs Celje
1:3
May 18, 2025 Prva liga
Nafta vs Celje
1:6
Mar 16, 2025 Prva liga
Celje vs Nafta
3:2
Dec 1, 2024 Prva liga
Nafta vs Celje
0:0
Sep 15, 2024 Prva liga
Celje vs Nafta
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celje 36 / 100
Nafta 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celje Nafta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nafta Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Celje's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Nafta let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Away concern: Nafta has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Celje VS Nafta
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Celje

(Home)
20 Sept
Mura
0 : 0
Celje
16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0
Celje
12 Sept
Bravo
2 : 1
Celje
06 Sept
Celje
0 : 1
Koper
02 Sept
Aluminij
0 : 2
Celje
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Nafta

(Away)
19 Sept
Koper
2 : 0
Nafta
11 Sept
Grosuplje
1 : 2
Nafta
04 Sept
Nafta
3 : 1
Radomlje
30 Aug
Nafta
2 : 3
Maribor
21 Aug
O. Ljubljana
1 : 0
Nafta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maribor 10 5 5 0 19:8 20
2 Koper 10 5 3 2 11:8 18
3 Bravo 10 5 3 2 12:10 18
4 O. Ljubljana 10 4 2 4 10:8 14
5 Aluminij 10 3 4 3 16:11 13
6 Nafta 10 4 1 5 17:16 13
7 Celje 9 3 3 3 11:11 12
8 Grosuplje 10 3 2 5 14:18 11
9 Mura 10 2 3 5 10:21 9
10 Radomlje 9 1 2 6 9:18 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)