Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Celle Varazze vs Derthona FbC

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Buongiorno D.
(Penalty)
36'
Nobile C.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A game between Celle Varazze and Derthona FbC finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Derthona FbC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Celle Varazze
15%
Draws
65%
Derthona FbC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Derthona FbC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Celle Varazze haven't matched Derthona FbC's recent run of results.
  • Celle Varazze are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Derthona FbC have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Celle Varazze Clean Sheet 20%
Derthona FbC Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celle Varazze Derthona FbC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 6 6
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Celle Varazze vs Derthona FbC
0:1
Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Derthona FbC vs Celle Varazze
0:3
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Celle Varazze vs Derthona FbC
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celle Varazze 40 / 100
Derthona FbC 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celle Varazze Derthona FbC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Celle Varazze Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Celle Varazze's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Derthona FbC conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Celle Varazze stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Celle Varazze VS Derthona FbC
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Celle Varazze

(Home)
20 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 2
Ligorna
16 Sept
Saluzzo
3 : 1
Celle Varazze
12 Sept
Sanremese
1 : 0
Celle Varazze
06 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 1
Derthona FbC
03 May
Imperia Calcio
0 : 1
Celle Varazze
Page 1 of 6

Derthona FbC

(Away)
20 Sept
Derthona FbC
1 : 0
Millesimo
16 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 3
Derthona FbC
13 Sept
Derthona FbC
1 : 1
Imperia Calcio
06 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 1
Derthona FbC
10 May
Derthona FbC
1 : 2
Gozzano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Derthona FbC 4 3 1 0 6:3 10
2 Saluzzo 4 2 2 0 8:4 8
3 AS Biellese 4 2 2 0 6:3 8
4 GSD Lascaris 4 2 2 0 3:1 8
5 Fezzanese 4 2 1 1 6:3 7
6 Asti Calcio 4 2 1 1 6:5 7
7 Millesimo 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
8 Alessandria 3 2 0 1 5:6 6
9 Sanremese 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
10 Gozzano 4 1 2 1 2:2 5
11 Imperia Calcio 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
12 Ligorna 4 1 1 2 7:8 4
13 Chisola 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
14 Sestri Levante 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
15 Bra 4 0 2 2 2:4 2
16 Borgosesia Calcio 3 0 2 1 1:3 2
17 Valenzana 4 0 1 3 4:7 1
18 Celle Varazze 4 0 0 4 1:7 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A (Play Out)