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Celle Varazze vs Derthona FbC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Buongiorno D.
(Penalty)
36'
Nobile C.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A game between Celle Varazze and Derthona FbC finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Derthona FbC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Celle Varazze
30%
Draws
39%
Derthona FbC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Derthona FbC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Derthona FbC haven't matched Celle Varazze's recent run of results.
  • Celle Varazze are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Derthona FbC have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Celle Varazze Clean Sheet 14%
Derthona FbC Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celle Varazze Derthona FbC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 4 9
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Celle Varazze vs Derthona FbC
0:1
Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Derthona FbC vs Celle Varazze
0:3
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Celle Varazze vs Derthona FbC
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celle Varazze 35 / 100
Derthona FbC 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celle Varazze Derthona FbC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Celle Varazze's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Derthona FbC conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Celle Varazze stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Celle Varazze VS Derthona FbC
0.38 Goals Scored 1.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Celle Varazze

(Home)
01 Nov
Celle Varazze
2 : 1
Valenzana
28 Oct
Celle Varazze
1 : 2
Gozzano
25 Oct
Imperia Calcio
2 : 0
Celle Varazze
11 Oct
Sestri Levante
1 : 1
Celle Varazze
07 Oct
Bra
2 : 0
Celle Varazze
Page 1 of 6

Derthona FbC

(Away)
01 Nov
Derthona FbC
4 : 3
GSD Lascaris
25 Oct
Bra
0 : 0
Derthona FbC
18 Oct
Derthona FbC
1 : 1
Asti Calcio
11 Oct
Chisola
4 : 2
Derthona FbC
04 Oct
Derthona FbC
1 : 3
Alessandria
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alessandria 10 9 0 1 21:10 27
2 Chisola 10 6 2 2 24:12 20
3 AS Biellese 10 6 2 2 21:11 20
4 Ligorna 10 5 2 3 17:12 17
5 Derthona FbC 10 4 4 2 14:14 16
6 Millesimo 10 5 1 4 17:11 16
7 Imperia Calcio 10 4 3 3 13:11 15
8 Asti Calcio 10 4 2 4 11:12 14
9 Gozzano 10 4 2 4 12:15 14
10 Sanremese 10 3 5 2 12:9 14
11 Saluzzo 10 2 6 2 10:10 12
12 Borgosesia Calcio 10 3 3 4 13:15 12
13 GSD Lascaris 10 3 2 5 9:14 11
14 Fezzanese 10 3 1 6 8:15 10
15 Bra 10 2 4 4 8:14 10
16 Sestri Levante 10 2 4 4 7:10 10
17 Valenzana 10 1 2 7 10:18 5
18 Celle Varazze 10 1 1 8 5:19 4
Promotion - Serie D - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A (Play Out)