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Celle Varazze vs Ligorna

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A
Our Tip

Match Events

67' Event
Piredda M.
81' Event
Gibilterra G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A game between Celle Varazze and Ligorna finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ligorna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Celle Varazze
15%
Draws
59%
Ligorna
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ligorna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ligorna come out ahead of Celle Varazze on wins alone.
  • Model gives Ligorna a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Ligorna here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Celle Varazze Clean Sheet 13%
Ligorna Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celle Varazze Ligorna
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 19
Draws 6 6
Losses 13 5
Goals Scored 1.17 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.41 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Celle Varazze vs Ligorna
0:2
Jan 4, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Celle Varazze vs Ligorna
2:3
Sep 7, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Celle Varazze
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Celle Varazze Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Ligorna Compare

Top Goalscorer Piredda M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gibilterra G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celle Varazze 22 / 100
Ligorna 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celle Varazze Ligorna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ligorna Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Celle Varazze scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Ligorna's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Celle Varazze remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Celle Varazze VS Ligorna
0.75 Goals Scored 2.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Celle Varazze

(Home)
20 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 2
Ligorna
16 Sept
Saluzzo
3 : 1
Celle Varazze
12 Sept
Sanremese
1 : 0
Celle Varazze
06 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 1
Derthona FbC
03 May
Imperia Calcio
0 : 1
Celle Varazze
Page 1 of 6

Ligorna

(Away)
20 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 2
Ligorna
16 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 3
Derthona FbC
13 Sept
AS Biellese
3 : 1
Ligorna
06 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 2
Sanremese
17 May
Ligorna
5 : 3
Varese FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AS Biellese 5 3 2 0 8:4 11
2 Derthona FbC 5 3 2 0 6:3 11
3 Gozzano 5 3 1 1 7:3 10
4 Saluzzo 5 2 3 0 8:4 9
5 Millesimo 5 3 0 2 8:4 9
6 Alessandria 4 3 0 1 7:6 9
7 Imperia Calcio 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Asti Calcio 5 2 1 2 6:7 7
9 Ligorna 5 2 1 2 9:9 7
10 GSD Lascaris 5 2 1 2 3:6 7
11 Fezzanese 5 2 1 2 6:5 7
12 Sanremese 5 1 2 2 6:7 5
13 Borgosesia Calcio 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
14 Chisola 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
15 Sestri Levante 5 1 1 3 5:8 4
16 Bra 4 0 2 2 2:4 2
17 Valenzana 5 0 1 4 5:9 1
18 Celle Varazze 4 0 0 4 1:7 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A (Play Out)