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Cerrito vs Bella Vista

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division 2023 Estadio Charrúa, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Diaz G.
55' Event
Baran A.
79' Event
Batista L.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda Division 2023 game between Cerrito and Bella Vista finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cerrito.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Cerrito
30%
Draws
23%
Bella Vista
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cerrito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Cerrito carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Cerrito's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Segunda Division 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Cerrito Clean Sheet 68%
Bella Vista Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerrito Bella Vista
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 7
Draws 11 4
Losses 9 19
Goals Scored 1.32 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2023 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Bella Vista
2:1
Jul 1, 2023 Segunda Division
Bella Vista vs Cerrito
3:2
Apr 9, 2023 Segunda Division
Bella Vista vs Cerrito
2:0
Sep 22, 2019 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Bella Vista
2:0
Jun 22, 2019 Segunda Division
Bella Vista vs Cerrito
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cerrito Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Batista L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Bella Vista Compare

Top Goalscorer Baran A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerrito 95 / 100
Bella Vista 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerrito Bella Vista

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cerrito Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bella Vista let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Cerrito scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Cerrito has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cerrito VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Cerrito

(Home)
27 Sept
Cerrito
1 : 2
La Luz
23 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 3
Cerrito
20 Sept
Cerrito
1 : 1
River Plate Montevideo
13 Sept
Atenas
0 : 0
Cerrito
10 Sept
CA Cerro
0 : 2
Cerrito
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Bella Vista

(Away)
09 Sept
Bella Vista
1 : 2
Central Esp.
27 Aug
Bella Vista
1 : 0
Juventud
03 Dec
Juventud
3 : 0
Bella Vista
29 Nov
Bella Vista
1 : 1
Atenas
26 Nov
Rampla Juniors
2 : 0
Bella Vista
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