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Cerrito vs Fenix

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division Estadio Charrúa, Montevideo
Sun, Jul 26, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cerrito host Fenix in the Segunda Division. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Cerrito at 1.38 goals for, 1.13 against; Fenix at 1.63 for, 1.38 against. Past meetings favor Fenix slightly — 0-3-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 26, 2026, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.38, favoring Fenix. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Cerrito
20%
Draws
38%
Fenix
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cerrito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Fenix have won more games recently than Cerrito.
  • Cerrito are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Cerrito Clean Sheet 17%
Fenix Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerrito Fenix
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 12
Draws 12 8
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.38 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Fenix
0:0
Apr 12, 2026 Segunda Division
Fenix vs Cerrito
4:1
Sep 22, 2025 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Fenix
2:2
Jun 29, 2025 Segunda Division
Fenix vs Cerrito
3:2
Sep 15, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerrito vs Fenix
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerrito 41 / 100
Fenix 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerrito Fenix

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Cerrito's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Fenix conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Cerrito stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cerrito VS Fenix
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Cerrito

(Home)
18 Jul
Rentistas
0 : 0
Cerrito
12 Jul
Cerrito
1 : 0
Miramar
05 Jul
Tacuarembo
0 : 0
Cerrito
28 Jun
Cerrito
1 : 0
Plaza Colonia
21 Jun
La Luz
2 : 0
Cerrito
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Fenix

(Away)
13 Jul
Paysandu FC
1 : 0
Fenix
05 Jul
Fenix
2 : 0
Huracan FC
27 Jun
Uruguay Montevideo FC
3 : 2
Fenix
20 Jun
Fenix
2 : 2
Club Oriental De Futbol
13 Jun
Colon
1 : 1
Fenix
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Atenas1061318:1119
2Cerrito1154215:1319
3River Plate Montevideo1153318:1718
4Club Oriental De Futbol1136216:1315
5Colon1043310:915
6Rentistas1143411:1315
7Tacuarembo104248:1014
8Fenix1034314:1213
9Miramar1034314:1213
10La Luz103438:813
11Plaza Colonia1041510:1113
12Huracan FC113358:1312
13Paysandu FC1031612:1510
14Uruguay Montevideo FC1123611:169
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya 2027 (Apertura)