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Cerrito vs La Luz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division Estadio Charrúa, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Gottesman J.
(Penalty)
59' Event
Da Rocha A.
90' Event
Gottesman J.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda Division game between Cerrito and La Luz finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward La Luz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Cerrito
30%
Draws
47%
La Luz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: La Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • La Luz haven't matched Cerrito's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Cerrito Clean Sheet 19%
La Luz Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerrito La Luz
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 11 9
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.32 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs La Luz
1:2
Jun 21, 2026 Segunda Division
La Luz vs Cerrito
2:0
Apr 18, 2026 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs La Luz
0:0
Aug 16, 2025 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs La Luz
1:0
May 24, 2025 Segunda Division
La Luz vs Cerrito
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cerrito Compare

Top Goalscorer Da Rocha A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

La Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Gottesman J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerrito 32 / 100
La Luz 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerrito La Luz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick La Luz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cerrito's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Cerrito has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

La Luz has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cerrito VS La Luz
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Cerrito

(Home)
31 Oct
Fenix
1 : 1
Cerrito
25 Oct
Cerrito
2 : 2
Rentistas
17 Oct
Miramar
1 : 0
Cerrito
10 Oct
Cerrito
2 : 1
Tacuarembo
07 Oct
Cerrito
2 : 3
Wanderers
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La Luz

(Away)
31 Oct
Rentistas
2 : 0
La Luz
25 Oct
La Luz
3 : 0
Miramar
17 Oct
Tacuarembo
0 : 1
La Luz
11 Oct
La Luz
1 : 1
Plaza Colonia
04 Oct
La Luz
3 : 2
River Plate Montevideo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atenas 25 13 5 7 35:23 44
2 Rentistas 25 11 7 7 34:27 40
3 Colon 25 11 6 8 29:27 39
4 Plaza Colonia 25 10 8 7 31:25 38
5 Paysandu FC 25 10 5 10 33:32 35
6 River Plate Montevideo 25 9 7 9 37:32 34
7 Club Oriental De Futbol 25 8 10 7 34:30 34
8 Cerrito 25 8 10 7 32:29 34
9 La Luz 25 9 7 9 24:27 34
10 Fenix 25 7 10 8 28:30 31
11 Huracan FC 25 8 7 10 25:33 31
12 Miramar 25 7 9 9 26:31 30
13 Tacuarembo 25 6 8 11 19:28 26
14 Uruguay Montevideo FC 25 5 7 13 23:36 22
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya 2027 (Apertura)