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Cerrito vs Tacuarembo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division Estadio Charrúa, Montevideo
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cerrito host Tacuarembo in the Segunda Division. Little to choose between these two on current form. Tacuarembo have shipped 1.17 goals a game lately, while Cerrito have conceded 1.23 and scored 1.35. Past meetings favor Cerrito slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 5, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.31 - 0.88) back Cerrito to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Cerrito
35%
Draws
19%
Tacuarembo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cerrito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cerrito come out ahead of Tacuarembo on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Cerrito's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Cerrito Clean Sheet 68%
Tacuarembo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerrito Tacuarembo
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 11 12
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.35 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Segunda Division
Tacuarembo vs Cerrito
0:0
Mar 29, 2026 Segunda Division
Tacuarembo vs Cerrito
1:1
Aug 24, 2025 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Tacuarembo
1:1
Jun 3, 2025 Segunda Division
Tacuarembo vs Cerrito
2:0
Nov 16, 2024 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Tacuarembo
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerrito 68 / 100
Tacuarembo 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerrito Tacuarembo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cerrito Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cerrito found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

Tacuarembo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Cerrito stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cerrito VS Tacuarembo
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cerrito

(Home)
07 Oct
Cerrito
2 : 3
Wanderers
04 Oct
Plaza Colonia
1 : 3
Cerrito
27 Sept
Cerrito
1 : 2
La Luz
23 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 3
Cerrito
20 Sept
Cerrito
1 : 1
River Plate Montevideo
Page 1 of 7

Tacuarembo

(Away)
03 Oct
Tacuarembo
0 : 1
Atenas
28 Sept
Paysandu FC
2 : 2
Tacuarembo
20 Sept
Tacuarembo
1 : 1
Huracan FC
12 Sept
Uruguay Montevideo FC
2 : 2
Tacuarembo
06 Sept
Tacuarembo
0 : 1
Club Oriental De Futbol
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atenas 21 12 4 5 30:18 40
2 Rentistas 21 9 6 6 26:23 33
3 Club Oriental De Futbol 21 8 8 5 29:22 32
4 Plaza Colonia 21 9 5 7 26:21 32
5 River Plate Montevideo 21 8 6 7 31:26 30
6 Colon 21 8 6 7 20:23 30
7 Fenix 21 7 8 6 27:24 29
8 Cerrito 21 7 8 6 27:24 29
9 La Luz 21 7 6 8 19:24 27
10 Huracan FC 21 7 5 9 22:28 26
11 Paysandu FC 21 7 4 10 26:28 25
12 Miramar 21 6 7 8 23:26 25
13 Tacuarembo 21 6 6 9 16:23 24
14 Uruguay Montevideo FC 21 4 5 12 19:31 17
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya 2027 (Apertura)