Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cerro Largo vs CA Cerro

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Correa L.
23'
Rijo T.
32'
Rodriguez G.

AI Match Summary

Cerro Largo in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cerro Largo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Cerro Largo
35%
Draws
47%
CA Cerro
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: CA Cerro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to CA Cerro lately — more wins on the board than Cerro Largo.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 23%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerro Largo CA Cerro
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 9
Draws 10 6
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1 0.82
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 29, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs CA Cerro
2:0
Apr 10, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs CA Cerro
1:1
Sep 7, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Cerro Largo
0:1
Jun 19, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Cerro Largo
2:1
Mar 17, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs CA Cerro
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cerro Largo Compare

Top Goalscorer Anasco M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ramos N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

CA Cerro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerro Largo 37 / 100
CA Cerro 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerro Largo CA Cerro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CA Cerro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cerro Largo's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: CA Cerro conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Cerro Largo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cerro Largo VS CA Cerro
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Cerro Largo

(Home)
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0
Central Esp.
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
04 Sept
Montevideo City
2 : 1
Cerro Largo
30 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Liverpool M.
26 Aug
Plaza Colonia
2 : 1
Cerro Largo
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CA Cerro

(Away)
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
10 Sept
CA Cerro
0 : 2
Cerrito
06 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Racing Montevideo
01 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1
CA Cerro
29 Aug
Boston River
1 : 1
CA Cerro
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Penarol 7 5 1 1 12:3 16
2 Cerro Largo 7 3 2 2 7:5 11
3 Racing Montevideo 7 2 4 1 4:3 10
4 Liverpool M. 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
5 Central Esp. 7 2 3 2 4:4 9
6 CA Cerro 7 3 0 4 6:10 9
7 Defensor Sp. 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
8 Boston River 7 1 2 4 5:10 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wanderers 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
2 Club Nacional 7 4 1 2 8:8 13
3 Maldonado 7 3 3 1 12:6 12
4 Montevideo City 7 4 0 3 11:11 12
5 Juventud 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
6 Albion 7 1 3 3 6:8 6
7 Progreso 7 2 0 5 6:11 6
8 Danubio 7 0 4 3 5:9 4
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)