Sport Picks

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp. - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay

Copa Uruguay

Cerro Largo

1 - 1

Defensor Sp.

Our Tip

Match Events

29'

Segovia A.

44'

Neris J.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Cerro Largo

20%

Draws

40%

Defensor Sp.

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence

Attack-wise there's a gap: Defensor Sp. at 0.97 per game, Cerro Largo at 0.83.
42% — that's where the model lands on Cerro Largo taking it.
Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
Historical meetings favor Cerro Largo, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 30%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%

Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 19%

Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Cerro Largo	Defensor Sp.
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	6	6
Draws	10	10
Losses	13	14
Goals Scored	0.83	0.97
Goals Conceded	1.1	1.37
Expected Goals (xG)	1.06	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Copa Uruguay

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp.

1:1

Aug 22, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp.

1:1

Jul 13, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp.

1:1

Feb 21, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Defensor Sp. vs Cerro Largo

1:0

Sep 13, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp.

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cerro Largo Compare

Top Goalscorer Segovia A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.82

Avg xA / game 0.53

Defensor Sp. Compare

Top Goalscorer Neris J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerro Largo 42 / 100

Defensor Sp. 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Cerro Largo Defensor Sp.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cerro Largo scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Defensor Sp. conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Defensor Sp. has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cerro Largo VS Defensor Sp.

0.38 Goals Scored 1.38

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75

50% Over 1.5 50%

13% Over 2.5 50%

0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Cerro Largo

(Home)

31 Oct

Racing Montevideo

3 : 1

Cerro Largo

25 Oct

Cerro Largo

2 : 0

Boston River

21 Oct

Liverpool M.

1 : 0

Cerro Largo

16 Oct

CA Cerro

1 : 1

Cerro Largo

11 Oct

Cerro Largo

0 : 1

Albion

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Defensor Sp.

(Away)

01 Nov

Progreso

0 : 2

Defensor Sp.

24 Oct

Defensor Sp.

3 : 3

Racing Montevideo

17 Oct

Boston River

1 : 0

Defensor Sp.

10 Oct

Defensor Sp.

2 : 3

CA Cerro

03 Oct

Albion

3 : 2

Defensor Sp.

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