Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cerro Largo vs Maldonado

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Noble Sequeira A. M.
(Penalty)
34'
Piegas A.
46'
Sub
Segovia D. In: Freitas A.
Out: Segovia D.

AI Match Summary

Cerro Largo in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cerro Largo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Cerro Largo
33%
Draws
27%
Maldonado
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Cerro Largo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Cerro Largo haven't matched Maldonado's recent run of results.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Cerro Largo taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Cerro Largo have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 68%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerro Largo Maldonado
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 15
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.13 2
Goals Conceded 0.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Maldonado
3:1
Oct 17, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Maldonado
1:0
Apr 13, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Cerro Largo
0:1
Dec 6, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Maldonado
2:0
Jun 25, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Cerro Largo
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cerro Largo Compare

Top Goalscorer Pandiani A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Daguerre D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Maldonado Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerro Largo 50 / 100
Maldonado 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerro Largo Maldonado

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cerro Largo has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Cerro Largo scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Maldonado has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Cerro Largo VS Maldonado
1.13 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cerro Largo

(Home)
25 Jul
Central Esp.
0 : 1
Cerro Largo
13 Jul
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
08 Jun
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Cerro Largo
29 May
Cerro Largo
2 : 0
CA Cerro
23 May
Cerro Largo
3 : 0
Boston River
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Maldonado

(Away)
18 Jul
Progreso
1 : 0
Maldonado
10 Jul
Maldonado
1 : 1
Albion
06 Jun
Montevideo City
2 : 4
Maldonado
31 May
Maldonado
3 : 0
Club Nacional
24 May
Wanderers
1 : 1
Maldonado
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)