Sport Picks
Cerro Largo vs Maldonado
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo 
Match Events
28'
28'
Noble Sequeira A. M.
(Penalty)
34'
34'
Piegas A.
46'
46'
Sub
Segovia D. In: Freitas A.
Out: Segovia D.
AI Match Summary
Cerro Largo in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cerro Largo.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
14%
30%
56%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maldonado
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
56%
/ Medium Confidence
- Cerro Largo haven't matched Maldonado's recent run of results.
- 56% — that's where the model lands on Maldonado taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Cerro Largo have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 17%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Maldonado |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 16 |
| Draws | 10 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Cerro Largo
2:0
Mar 20, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Maldonado
3:1
Oct 17, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Maldonado
1:0
Apr 13, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Cerro Largo
0:1
Dec 6, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Maldonado
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cerro Largo Compare
Top Goalscorer Pandiani A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Daguerre D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Maldonado Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cerro Largo 10 / 100
Maldonado 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cerro Largo Maldonado
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Maldonado Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Cerro Largo scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Cerro Largo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Maldonado has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Cerro Largo VS Maldonado
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Cerro Largo
(Home) 19 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0 Cerro Largo
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0 Central Esp.
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
04 Sept
Montevideo City
2 : 1 Cerro Largo
30 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Liverpool M.
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0 Central Esp.
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
30 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Liverpool M.
22 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
07 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Juventud
Page 1 of 3
Maldonado
(Away) 23 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Maldonado
19 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0 Cerro Largo
13 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0 Maldonado
09 Sept
Maldonado
4 : 1 Wanderers
05 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0 Wanderers
Page 1 of 6
23 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Maldonado
13 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0 Maldonado
02 Sept
Cerrito
0 : 2 Maldonado
29 Aug
Juventud
2 : 0 Maldonado
16 Aug
Progreso
0 : 2 Maldonado
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Esp. | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Montevideo City | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sp. | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool M. | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | CA Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | 10 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)
