Sport Picks
Cerro Largo vs Penarol Prediction & H2H Stats
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo 
Match Events
39'
39'
Sub
Escobar F. In: Alvez F.
Out: Escobar F.
45'
45'
Daguerre D.
46'
46'
Sub
Barboza B. In: Hernandez A.
Out: Barboza B.
AI Match Summary
Penarol in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penarol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
19%
30%
51%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penarol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Penarol have won more games recently than Cerro Largo.
- 51% — that's where the model lands on Penarol taking it.
- Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 15%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 14 |
| Draws | 10 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.03 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 0.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.76 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 1, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Cerro Largo
3:0
May 11, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Penarol
2:3
Sep 27, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Penarol
1:3
Jun 1, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Penarol
1:1
Mar 30, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Cerro Largo
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cerro Largo Compare
Top Goalscorer Daguerre D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sellecchia F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Penarol Compare
Top Goalscorer Batista F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Umpierrez L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cerro Largo 19 / 100
Penarol 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cerro Largo Penarol
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Penarol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Cerro Largo scored in 69% of their last 29 games.
Penarol's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.
Solid form: Cerro Largo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Cerro Largo VS Penarol
0.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Cerro Largo
(Home) 04 Oct
Danubio
2 : 1 Cerro Largo
30 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 0 Rentistas
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2 Club Nacional
19 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0 Cerro Largo
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0 Central Esp.
Page 1 of 6
30 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 0 Rentistas
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2 Club Nacional
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0 Central Esp.
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
30 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Liverpool M.
Page 1 of 3
Penarol
(Away) 04 Oct
Racing Montevideo
0 : 1 Penarol
30 Sept
Montevideo City
1 : 1 Penarol
26 Sept
Penarol
2 : 1 Boston River
24 Sept
Danubio
1 : 1 Penarol
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Penarol
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Racing Montevideo
0 : 1 Penarol
30 Sept
Montevideo City
1 : 1 Penarol
24 Sept
Danubio
1 : 1 Penarol
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Penarol
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4 Penarol
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Esp. | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Montevideo City | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sp. | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool M. | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | CA Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | 10 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)
