Sport Picks
Cerro Largo vs Progreso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo 
AI Match Summary
Cerro Largo host Progreso in the Liga AUF Uruguaya. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Cerro Largo at 0.83 goals for, 1.1 against; Progreso at 0.79 for, 1.34 against. Head-to-head, Cerro Largo have won 5 to Progreso's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on May 3, 2026, ending 0:1. xG projections (0.81 - 1.25) back Cerro Largo to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Cerro Largo haven't matched Progreso's recent run of results.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Cerro Largo here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 6 | 9 |
| Draws | 10 | 1 |
| Losses | 13 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 0.83 | 0.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.34 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Progreso let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.
Cerro Largo found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Cerro Largo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Cerro Largo
(Home)Progreso
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool M. | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 22:8 | 30 |
| 2 | Montevideo City | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 26:14 | 28 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 19:13 | 26 |
| 4 | Maldonado | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 18:10 | 22 |
| 5 | Penarol | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 17:9 | 22 |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18:14 | 19 |
| 7 | Progreso | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 13:15 | 19 |
| 8 | Juventud | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12:10 | 18 |
| 9 | CA Cerro | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15:19 | 18 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14:19 | 16 |
| 11 | Boston River | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15:17 | 15 |
| 12 | Albion | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 15:20 | 13 |
| 13 | Defensor Sp. | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16:23 | 12 |
| 14 | Danubio | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 7:15 | 10 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 10:17 | 9 |
| 16 | Central Esp. | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8:22 | 8 |
