Sport Picks
Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Paraguay
Copa de Primera Estadio General Pablo Rojas, Asunción 
Match Events
59'
59'
Sub
Gaona Lugo O. In: Colman Escobar D. J.
Out: Gaona Lugo O.
59'
59'
Sub
Prieto R. In: Valdez I.
Out: Prieto R.
61'
61'
Sub
Benitez A. G. In: Riveros B.
Out: Benitez A. G.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
30%
37%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nacional Asuncion
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Nacional Asuncion at 1.39 per game, Cerro Porteno at 1.1.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Nacional Asuncion, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Cerro Porteno Clean Sheet 19%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cerro Porteno | Nacional Asuncion |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 13 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.1 | 1.39 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 0.86 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 7, 2026 Copa de Primera
Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion
1:0
Apr 11, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
0:0
Feb 15, 2026 Copa de Primera
Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion
0:2
Oct 27, 2025 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
1:2
Aug 8, 2025 Copa de Primera
Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cerro Porteno Compare
Top Goalscorer Vegetti P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Nacional Asuncion Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cerro Porteno 36 / 100
Nacional Asuncion 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cerro Porteno Nacional Asuncion
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nacional Asuncion Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Cerro Porteno's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Recent resilience: Cerro Porteno stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Nacional Asuncion's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 28 matches.
Games between these two average 1.20 goals.
Scoring Trends
Cerro Porteno VS Nacional Asuncion
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Cerro Porteno
(Home) 05 Oct
Cerro Porteno
0 : 2 2 de Mayo
30 Sept
Cerro Porteno
2 : 1 Rubio Nu
26 Sept
Sportivo Trinidense
2 : 1 Cerro Porteno
19 Sept
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0 Rubio Nu
12 Sept
Guarani
1 : 1 Cerro Porteno
Page 1 of 6
05 Oct
Cerro Porteno
0 : 2 2 de Mayo
30 Sept
Cerro Porteno
2 : 1 Rubio Nu
19 Sept
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0 Rubio Nu
07 Sept
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0 Nacional Asuncion
30 Aug
Cerro Porteno
1 : 1 Libertad Asuncion
Page 1 of 4
Nacional Asuncion
(Away) 06 Oct
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
30 Sept
Independiente FBC
3 : 2 Nacional Asuncion
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
18 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0 2 de Mayo
13 Sept
Rubio Nu
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
Page 1 of 6
06 Oct
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
30 Sept
Independiente FBC
3 : 2 Nacional Asuncion
13 Sept
Rubio Nu
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
07 Sept
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0 Nacional Asuncion
28 Aug
San Lorenzo
0 : 3 Nacional Asuncion
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 21:14 | 26 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 16:13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24:14 | 24 |
| 5 | Nacional Asuncion | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 20:8 | 23 |
| 6 | Guarani | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 14:10 | 21 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18:14 | 20 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 15:15 | 18 |
| 9 | Sp. Luqueno | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 14:27 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Nu | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15:24 | 12 |
| 11 | Recoleta | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14:26 | 8 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 5:23 | 4 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
