Sport Picks
Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion
Paraguay
Copa de Primera Estadio General Pablo Rojas, Asunción 
Match Events
20'
20'
Benitez A. G.
38'
38'
Perez M.
40'
40'
Sub
Benitez A. G. In: Chaparro M.
Out: Benitez A. G.
AI Match Summary
Nacional Asuncion in this Copa de Primera tie, finishing 0-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cerro Porteno
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
67%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Cerro Porteno lately — more wins on the board than Nacional Asuncion.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Cerro Porteno taking it.
- Cerro Porteno have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Nacional Asuncion, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Cerro Porteno Clean Sheet 20%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 20%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cerro Porteno | Nacional Asuncion |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 15 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 10 |
| Losses | 7 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 0.75 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 0.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 11, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
0:0
Feb 15, 2026 Copa de Primera
Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion
0:2
Oct 27, 2025 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
1:2
Aug 8, 2025 Copa de Primera
Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion
0:0
Apr 15, 2025 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cerro Porteno Compare
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Nacional Asuncion Compare
Top Goalscorer Vargas S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Benitez G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cerro Porteno 42 / 100
Nacional Asuncion 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cerro Porteno Nacional Asuncion
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Cerro Porteno's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Nacional Asuncion's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Solid form: Cerro Porteno remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Cerro Porteno VS Nacional Asuncion
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Cerro Porteno
(Home) 28 May
Cerro Porteno
2 : 0 Sporting Cristal
24 May
Cerro Porteno
2 : 0 Rubio Nu
21 May
Palmeiras
0 : 1 Cerro Porteno
15 May
Sportivo Trinidense
3 : 1 Cerro Porteno
11 May
Cerro Porteno
0 : 0 Guarani
Page 1 of 6
28 May
Cerro Porteno
2 : 0 Sporting Cristal
24 May
Cerro Porteno
2 : 0 Rubio Nu
11 May
Cerro Porteno
0 : 0 Guarani
30 Apr
Cerro Porteno
1 : 1 Palmeiras
24 Apr
Cerro Porteno
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 3
Nacional Asuncion
(Away) 24 May
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1 Libertad Asuncion
15 May
Rubio Nu
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
09 May
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1 Sportivo Trinidense
03 May
Guarani
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
24 Apr
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1 Recoleta
Page 1 of 6
15 May
Rubio Nu
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
03 May
Guarani
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
20 Apr
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
04 Apr
Olimpia Asuncion
3 : 0 Nacional Asuncion
31 Mar
2 de Mayo
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 37:17 | 49 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 31:22 | 39 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteno | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 30:22 | 38 |
| 4 | Sportivo Ameliano | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 27:21 | 33 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30:24 | 32 |
| 6 | Libertad Asuncion | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 34:26 | 31 |
| 7 | Guarani | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 27:23 | 29 |
| 8 | Recoleta | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 35:32 | 28 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 15:26 | 23 |
| 10 | 2 de Mayo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 18:35 | 22 |
| 11 | Sp. Luqueno | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 24:33 | 20 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14:41 | 15 |
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