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Stadium Background

Cesena vs Padova

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Di Maggio L.
5' Event
Shpendi C.
Assist: Cerri A.
7' Event
Cerri A.
Assist: Shpendi C.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Cesena and Padova finished 3-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Padova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Cesena
20%
Draws
28%
Padova
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cesena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Padova carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Cesena taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Cesena Clean Sheet 20%
Padova Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cesena Padova
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 9 6
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.4 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 Serie B
Cesena vs Padova
3:4
Dec 8, 2025 Serie B
Padova vs Cesena
1:1
Aug 4, 2024 Coppa Italia
Cesena vs Padova
3:1
Feb 28, 2021 Serie C - Group B
Padova vs Cesena
0:0
Nov 2, 2020 Serie C - Group B
Cesena vs Padova
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cesena Compare

Top Goalscorer Shpendi C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cerri A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Padova Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Maggio L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Caprari G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cesena 85 / 100
Padova 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cesena Padova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CES Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Cesena remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Cesena scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Padova has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Cesena VS Padova
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Cesena

(Home)
08 Aug
Forli FC
0 : 0
Cesena
05 Aug
Cesena
3 : 0
Vis Pesaro
01 Aug
Cesena
3 : 0
Fossombrone
25 Jul
Cesena
1 : 0
Carpi
21 Jul
Cesena
5 : 0
SSD Sampierana
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Padova

(Away)
07 Aug
Monza
3 : 3
Padova
01 Aug
Cittadella
0 : 2
Padova
25 Jul
Padova
1 : 3
Ospitaletto
22 Jul
Sassuolo
4 : 1
Padova
08 May
Cesena
3 : 4
Padova
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)