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Cetatea Turnu Magurele vs CSM Alexandria - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Romania Romania

Liga 3 - Seria 5
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cetatea Turnu Magurele host CSM Alexandria in the Liga 3 - Seria 5. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Cetatea Turnu Magurele have averaged 1.93 scored and 1.52 conceded recently, against CSM Alexandria's 1.64 scored and 1.21 conceded. Head-to-head, Cetatea Turnu Magurele have won 2 to CSM Alexandria's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 20, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.94 - 1.56) back CSM Alexandria to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Cetatea Turnu Magurele
35%
Draws
44%
CSM Alexandria
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: CSM Alexandria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • CSM Alexandria have won more games recently than Cetatea Turnu Magurele.
  • 44% — that's where the model lands on CSM Alexandria taking it.
  • Regular Liga 3 - Seria 5 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Cetatea Turnu Magurele Clean Sheet 15%
CSM Alexandria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cetatea Turnu Magurele CSM Alexandria
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 14
Draws 6 6
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.93 1.64
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2026 Liga 3 - Seria 5
CSM Alexandria vs Cetatea Turnu Magurele
1:1
Oct 24, 2025 Liga 3 - Seria 5
Cetatea Turnu Magurele vs CSM Alexandria
2:0
Nov 1, 2024 Liga 3 - Seria 4
Cetatea Turnu Magurele vs CSM Alexandria
0:1
Sep 1, 2024 Liga 3 - Seria 4
CSM Alexandria vs Cetatea Turnu Magurele
3:0
Dec 3, 2022 Liga 3 - Seria 6
Cetatea Turnu Magurele vs CSM Alexandria
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cetatea Turnu Magurele 19 / 100
CSM Alexandria 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cetatea Turnu Magurele CSM Alexandria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CSM Alexandria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cetatea Turnu Magurele found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

CSM Alexandria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Cetatea Turnu Magurele went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cetatea Turnu Magurele VS CSM Alexandria
2.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Cetatea Turnu Magurele

(Home)
09 Oct
Oxigen Bucuresti
2 : 0
Cetatea Turnu Magurele
02 Oct
Cetatea Turnu Magurele
2 : 2
LPS HD Clinceni
26 Sept
Progresul Mogosoaia
3 : 3
Cetatea Turnu Magurele
22 Sept
Din. Bucuresti 2
1 : 3
Cetatea Turnu Magurele
18 Sept
Cetatea Turnu Magurele
2 : 2
Voluntari 2
Page 1 of 6

CSM Alexandria

(Away)
09 Oct
CSM Alexandria
1 : 0
Din. Bucuresti 2
02 Oct
Voluntari 2
0 : 2
CSM Alexandria
25 Sept
CSM Alexandria
2 : 0
Adunatii-Copaceni
22 Sept
FCSB 2
1 : 3
CSM Alexandria
18 Sept
CSM Alexandria
2 : 2
SCM Dunarea Giurgiu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CSM Alexandria 8 5 2 1 13:6 17
2 Omega Sport 7 5 2 0 9:4 17
3 LPS HD Clinceni 7 4 2 1 18:11 14
4 SCM Dunarea Giurgiu 7 3 4 0 12:7 13
5 Adunatii-Copaceni 7 4 0 3 6:6 12
6 Oxigen Bucuresti 8 3 1 4 11:14 10
7 Cetatea Turnu Magurele 8 2 3 3 19:13 9
8 Progresul Mogosoaia 7 2 3 2 9:11 9
9 Din. Bucuresti 2 8 3 0 5 8:13 9
10 Progresul Spartac 7 2 0 5 9:9 6
11 Voluntari 2 7 1 1 5 6:11 4
12 FCSB 2 7 1 0 6 7:22 3
Promotion - Liga 3 - Promotion Group 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Liga 3 - Seria 5 (Relegation Group)