Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CF Montreal vs Forge FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Canada Canada

Championship Saputo Stadium, Montreal, QC
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: CF Montreal at 1.44 goals for, 1.63 against; Forge FC at 1.89 for, 0.86 against. Head-to-head, CF Montreal have won 1 to Forge FC's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Jul 9, 2025, ending 2:2. xG projections (0.81 - 2.06) back Forge FC to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
CF Montreal
20%
Draws
52%
Forge FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Forge FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Forge FC come out ahead of CF Montreal on wins alone.
  • Forge FC are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Forge FC arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Forge FC, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
CF Montreal Clean Sheet 10%
Forge FC Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CF Montreal Forge FC
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 9 17
Draws 7 7
Losses 11 4
Goals Scored 1.44 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 9, 2025 Championship
CF Montreal vs Forge FC
2:2
May 20, 2025 Championship
Forge FC vs CF Montreal
1:0
May 22, 2024 Championship
CF Montreal vs Forge FC
1:2
May 7, 2024 Championship
Forge FC vs CF Montreal
1:1
May 24, 2023 Championship
CF Montreal vs Forge FC
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CF Montreal 10 / 100
Forge FC 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CF Montreal Forge FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Forge FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CF Montreal found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (27 games).

Defensive concern: Forge FC conceded in 64% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Recent resilience: CF Montreal stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CF Montreal VS Forge FC
0.88 Goals Scored 2.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CF Montreal

(Home)
14 Oct
CF Montreal
0 : 3
Atlanta United
10 Oct
Toronto FC
2 : 1
CF Montreal
26 Sept
CF Montreal
3 : 1
FC Cincinnati
19 Sept
CF Montreal
0 : 2
Columbus Crew
16 Sept
CF Montreal
2 : 1
Vancouver Whitecaps
Page 1 of 6

Forge FC

(Away)
17 Oct
Atletico Ottawa
1 : 2
Forge FC
12 Oct
Forge FC
5 : 0
Inter Toronto
07 Oct
Forge FC
3 : 0
Pacific FC
03 Oct
Forge FC
3 : 3
HFX Wanderers
26 Sept
Vancouver FC
1 : 1
Forge FC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Vancouver Whitecaps -
TBD -
Pacific FC 1
Cavalry 3
CF Montreal 5
Calgary Blizzard SC 0
Vancouver FC 2
Langley United SA 0
Forge FC 4
HFX Wanderers 0
Inter Toronto 0
CS Saint-Laurent 1
Toronto FC 1
Atletico Ottawa 3
Supra du Quebec 3
Woodbridge Strikers 1
Quarter-finals
Vancouver Whitecaps 5
Cavalry 2
CF Montreal 4
Vancouver FC 2
Forge FC 3
CS Saint-Laurent 2
Atletico Ottawa 4
Supra du Quebec 6
Semi-finals
Vancouver Whitecaps 2
CF Montreal 3
Forge FC 2
Supra du Quebec 1
Final
CF Montreal -
Forge FC -