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Chabab Mohammedia vs USM Oujda Prediction & H2H Stats

Morocco Morocco

Botola 2 Stade El Bachir, Mohammedia
Sun, Oct 4, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chabab Mohammedia host USM Oujda in the Botola 2. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Chabab Mohammedia at 0.69 goals for, 1.38 against; USM Oujda at 1.06 for, 1 against. Head-to-head, Chabab Mohammedia have won 1 to USM Oujda's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 1, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 0.75 vs 1.31, favoring USM Oujda. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Chabab Mohammedia
20%
Draws
57%
USM Oujda
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: USM Oujda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and USM Oujda come out ahead of Chabab Mohammedia on wins alone.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on USM Oujda taking it.
  • Regular Botola 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Chabab Mohammedia Clean Sheet 18%
USM Oujda Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chabab Mohammedia USM Oujda
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 7 12
Draws 8 10
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 0.69 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Botola 2
Chabab Mohammedia vs USM Oujda
1:0
Oct 5, 2025 Botola 2
USM Oujda vs Chabab Mohammedia
1:1
Oct 13, 2024 Excellence Cup
USM Oujda vs Chabab Mohammedia
1:0
Sep 4, 2024 Excellence Cup
Chabab Mohammedia vs USM Oujda
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chabab Mohammedia 28 / 100
USM Oujda 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chabab Mohammedia USM Oujda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USM Oujda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: USM Oujda conceded in 64% of 33 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Chabab Mohammedia found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).

Recent resilience: Chabab Mohammedia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chabab Mohammedia VS USM Oujda
0.5 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Chabab Mohammedia

(Home)
26 Sept
Yacoub El Mansour
2 : 0
Chabab Mohammedia
05 Jul
Chabab Mohammedia
4 : 3
KAC Kenitra
27 Jun
Raja Beni Mellal
2 : 0
Chabab Mohammedia
20 Jun
Chabab Mohammedia
0 : 1
Stade Marocain
14 Jun
Chabab Mohammedia
1 : 1
Widad Temara
Page 1 of 6

USM Oujda

(Away)
27 Sept
USM Oujda
2 : 1
Mouloudia Oujda
05 Jul
Widad Temara
0 : 1
USM Oujda
27 Jun
USM Oujda
1 : 1
Chabab Atlas Khenifra
20 Jun
Jeunesse Sportive Soualem
2 : 0
USM Oujda
13 Jun
USM Oujda
1 : 0
US Boujaad
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chabab Benguerir 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Yacoub El Mansour 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
3 Ittihad Khemisset 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
4 Jeunesse Massira 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
5 USM Oujda 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
6 Wydad Fes 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
7 Dcheira 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
8 Olympique de Safi 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
9 US Boujaad 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
10 Mouloudia Oujda 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
11 Stade Marocain 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
12 Chabab Atlas Khenifra 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
13 KAC Kenitra 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
14 Olympique Khouribga 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
15 Chabab Mohammedia 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
16 Jeunesse Sportive Soualem 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - Botola Pro 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Botola Pro (Relegation)
Relegation - Botola 2 (Relegation)