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Chabab Mohammedia vs USM Oujda Prediction & H2H Stats

Morocco Morocco

Botola 2 2025/2026 Stade El Bachir, Mohammedia
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Botola 2 2025/2026 game between Chabab Mohammedia and USM Oujda finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chabab Mohammedia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Chabab Mohammedia
20%
Draws
57%
USM Oujda
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: USM Oujda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • USM Oujda carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives USM Oujda a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Chabab Mohammedia Clean Sheet 18%
USM Oujda Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chabab Mohammedia USM Oujda
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 7 12
Draws 8 10
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 0.69 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Botola 2
Chabab Mohammedia vs USM Oujda
1:0
Oct 5, 2025 Botola 2
USM Oujda vs Chabab Mohammedia
1:1
Oct 13, 2024 Excellence Cup
USM Oujda vs Chabab Mohammedia
1:0
Sep 4, 2024 Excellence Cup
Chabab Mohammedia vs USM Oujda
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chabab Mohammedia 28 / 100
USM Oujda 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chabab Mohammedia USM Oujda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USM Oujda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USM Oujda's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Chabab Mohammedia scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Recent resilience: Chabab Mohammedia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chabab Mohammedia VS USM Oujda
0.5 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Chabab Mohammedia

(Home)
26 Sept
Yacoub El Mansour
2 : 0
Chabab Mohammedia
05 Jul
Chabab Mohammedia
4 : 3
KAC Kenitra
27 Jun
Raja Beni Mellal
2 : 0
Chabab Mohammedia
20 Jun
Chabab Mohammedia
0 : 1
Stade Marocain
14 Jun
Chabab Mohammedia
1 : 1
Widad Temara
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USM Oujda

(Away)
27 Sept
USM Oujda
2 : 1
Mouloudia Oujda
05 Jul
Widad Temara
0 : 1
USM Oujda
27 Jun
USM Oujda
1 : 1
Chabab Atlas Khenifra
20 Jun
Jeunesse Sportive Soualem
2 : 0
USM Oujda
13 Jun
USM Oujda
1 : 0
US Boujaad
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Moghreb Tetouan 30 14 11 5 33:22 53
2 Widad Temara 30 13 14 3 36:26 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 10 16 4 36:26 46
4 Jeunesse Massira 30 11 11 8 29:21 44
5 Chabab Atlas Khenifra 30 11 10 9 26:24 43
6 Jeunesse Sportive Soualem 30 10 12 8 37:35 42
7 Stade Marocain 30 11 8 11 23:24 41
8 Wydad Fes 30 9 11 10 34:30 38
9 Mouloudia Oujda 30 8 13 9 35:38 37
10 Chabab Benguerir 30 8 13 9 25:28 37
11 USM Oujda 30 9 10 11 29:30 37
12 Chabab Mohammedia 30 9 9 12 25:37 36
13 KAC Kenitra 30 8 12 10 35:36 36
14 US Boujaad 30 7 14 9 25:22 35
15 Raja Beni Mellal 30 7 11 12 25:32 32
16 RAC Casablanca 30 3 9 18 21:43 18
Promotion - Botola Pro (Main)
Promotion - Botola Pro 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Botola 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)