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Changwon vs Daejeon Korail

South Korea South Korea

K3 League
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Kim Jung-Joo

AI Match Summary

Daejeon Korail in this K3 League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Daejeon Korail.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Changwon
30%
Draws
54%
Daejeon Korail
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Daejeon Korail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Daejeon Korail lately — more wins on the board than Changwon.
  • Daejeon Korail are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular K3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Changwon Clean Sheet 16%
Daejeon Korail Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Changwon Daejeon Korail
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 16
Draws 10 7
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.31 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.14 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 K3 League
Changwon vs Daejeon Korail
0:1
Apr 25, 2026 K3 League
Daejeon Korail vs Changwon
1:0
Aug 31, 2025 K3 League
Changwon vs Daejeon Korail
0:0
May 2, 2025 K3 League
Daejeon Korail vs Changwon
1:1
Jul 5, 2024 K3 League
Daejeon Korail vs Changwon
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Changwon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Daejeon Korail Compare

Top Goalscorer Kim Jung-Joo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Changwon 28 / 100
Daejeon Korail 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Changwon Daejeon Korail

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Daejeon Korail Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Changwon scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Daejeon Korail let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Changwon stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Changwon VS Daejeon Korail
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Changwon

(Home)
05 Sept
Changwon
0 : 1
Daejeon Korail
22 Aug
Busan Kyotong
4 : 3
Changwon
26 Jul
Changwon
1 : 1
Jeonbuk 2
15 Jul
Changwon
1 : 5
Gimhae
12 Jul
Changwon
1 : 1
Chuncheon
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Daejeon Korail

(Away)
05 Sept
Changwon
0 : 1
Daejeon Korail
29 Aug
Daejeon Korail
2 : 1
Yangpyeong
23 Aug
Siheung Citizen
2 : 0
Daejeon Korail
25 Jul
Pocheon
1 : 1
Daejeon Korail
11 Jul
Daejeon Korail
0 : 1
Gyeongju KHNP
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Siheung Citizen 21 15 4 2 32:18 49
2 Pocheon 21 12 6 3 36:19 42
3 Daejeon Korail 21 11 5 5 31:16 38
4 Busan Kyotong 21 10 7 4 36:21 37
5 Dangjin Citizen 21 8 4 9 39:33 28
6 Gangneung 21 7 6 8 20:29 27
7 Chuncheon 21 7 5 9 37:34 26
8 Gyeongju KHNP 20 6 8 6 29:28 26
9 Changwon 20 6 8 6 22:22 26
10 Ulsan Citizen 21 7 4 10 22:24 25
11 Yeoju Citizen 21 6 7 8 23:26 25
12 Mokpo 21 3 9 9 16:34 18
13 Yangpyeong 21 3 8 10 27:41 17
14 Jeonbuk 2 21 1 7 13 21:46 10
Relegation - K3 League (Relegation)