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Chapada vs Santa Cruz MT - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Chapada Logo

Chapada

2 - 0
FT
Santa Cruz MT Logo

Santa Cruz MT

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Chapada
15%
Draws
32%
Santa Cruz MT
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chapada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Chapada lately — more wins on the board than Santa Cruz MT.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Chapada taking it.
  • Chapada have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Chapada, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Chapada Clean Sheet 20%
Santa Cruz MT Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chapada Santa Cruz MT
Matches Played 22 21
Wins 11 7
Draws 5 5
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.86 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.05 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Chapada vs Santa Cruz MT
2:0
Jun 15, 2025 Matogrossense 2
Santa Cruz MT vs Chapada
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chapada 40 / 100
Santa Cruz MT 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chapada Santa Cruz MT

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chapada Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chapada scored in 73% of their last 22 games.

Defensive concern: Santa Cruz MT conceded in 67% of 21 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Chapada has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Chapada VS Santa Cruz MT
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Chapada

(Home)
07 Oct
Chapada
3 : 0
Várzea Grande EC
30 Sept
Chapada
2 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
27 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
2 : 5
Chapada
23 Sept
Uniao Rondonopolis
1 : 0
Chapada
16 Sept
Chapada
1 : 1
Uirapuru
Page 1 of 5

Santa Cruz MT

(Away)
07 Oct
Uniao Rondonopolis
1 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
30 Sept
Chapada
2 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
27 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
4 : 0
Uniao Rondonopolis
19 Sept
Uirapuru
2 : 3
Santa Cruz MT
13 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 2
Várzea Grande EC
Page 1 of 5

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uniao Rondonopolis 6 4 1 1 7:6 13
2 Chapada 5 3 1 1 11:4 10
3 Santa Cruz MT 5 2 0 3 8:7 6
4 Várzea Grande EC 6 2 0 4 10:15 6
5 Uirapuru 6 1 2 3 7:11 5
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cuiaba 4 4 0 0 13:2 12
2 Sorriso EC 4 2 0 2 9:7 6
3 Cacerense 4 2 0 2 7:10 6
4 Campo Novo 4 0 0 4 3:13 0
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)