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Chapada vs Várzea Grande EC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Chapada Logo

Chapada

3 - 0
FT
Várzea Grande EC Logo

Várzea Grande EC

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-0. This leg finished 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Chapada
15%
Draws
32%
Várzea Grande EC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chapada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Chapada have won more games recently than Várzea Grande EC.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Chapada taking it.
  • Chapada have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Chapada, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Chapada have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Chapada Clean Sheet 15%
Várzea Grande EC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chapada Várzea Grande EC
Matches Played 22 27
Wins 11 7
Draws 5 6
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.86 1.22
Goals Conceded 1.05 1.85
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 7, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Chapada vs Várzea Grande EC
3:0
Sep 27, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Várzea Grande EC vs Chapada
2:5
Jan 17, 2026 Matogrossense
Chapada vs Várzea Grande EC
3:1
Jul 31, 2025 Matogrossense 2
Chapada vs Várzea Grande EC
1:0
Jul 24, 2025 Matogrossense 2
Várzea Grande EC vs Chapada
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chapada 84 / 100
Várzea Grande EC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chapada Várzea Grande EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chapada Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Várzea Grande EC has conceded goals in 85% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Chapada found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (22 games).

Chapada has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Chapada VS Várzea Grande EC
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Chapada

(Home)
07 Oct
Chapada
3 : 0
Várzea Grande EC
30 Sept
Chapada
2 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
27 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
2 : 5
Chapada
23 Sept
Uniao Rondonopolis
1 : 0
Chapada
16 Sept
Chapada
1 : 1
Uirapuru
Page 1 of 5

Várzea Grande EC

(Away)
07 Oct
Chapada
3 : 0
Várzea Grande EC
27 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
2 : 5
Chapada
23 Sept
Uirapuru
1 : 4
Várzea Grande EC
20 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Uniao Rondonopolis
13 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 2
Várzea Grande EC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uniao Rondonopolis 6 4 1 1 7:6 13
2 Chapada 5 3 1 1 11:4 10
3 Santa Cruz MT 5 2 0 3 8:7 6
4 Várzea Grande EC 5 2 0 3 9:13 6
5 Uirapuru 5 0 2 3 5:10 2
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cuiaba 4 4 0 0 13:2 12
2 Sorriso EC 4 2 0 2 9:7 6
3 Cacerense 4 2 0 2 7:10 6
4 Campo Novo 4 0 0 4 3:13 0
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)