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Chapadao vs Costa Rica

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Sul-Matogrossense 2023
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Match Events

26' Event
51' Event
59' Event

AI Match Summary

Costa Rica in this Sul-Matogrossense 2023 matchup, with the score ending 3-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Costa Rica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Chapadao
35%
Draws
19%
Costa Rica
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Chapadao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Costa Rica lately — more wins on the board than Chapadao.
  • Chapadao are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Costa Rica have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Chapadao Clean Sheet 68%
Costa Rica Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chapadao Costa Rica
Matches Played 30 45
Wins 13 15
Draws 5 14
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.43 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Chapadao vs Costa Rica
3:4
Jan 22, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Costa Rica vs Chapadao
2:0
Apr 20, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Chapadao vs Costa Rica
0:1
Mar 31, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Costa Rica vs Chapadao
1:2
Feb 26, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Costa Rica vs Chapadao
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chapadao 50 / 100
Costa Rica 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chapadao Costa Rica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chapadao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chapadao found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Costa Rica conceded in 69% of 45 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Chapadao went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Costa Rica
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Chapadao

(Home)
02 Apr
Ivinhema
2 : 4
Chapadao
26 Mar
Chapadao
0 : 3
Ivinhema
12 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Chapadao
05 Mar
Chapadao
1 : 1
Coxim
03 Mar
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Chapadao
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Costa Rica

(Away)
01 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 2
Corumbaense
21 Feb
Bataguassu
2 : 0
Costa Rica
15 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Naviraiense
11 Feb
Operario MS
0 : 0
Costa Rica
08 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Aguia Negra
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Costa Rica 8 6 1 1 15:6 19
2 Operario MS 8 5 0 3 13:8 15
3 Chapadao 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
4 Coxim 8 2 2 4 4:11 8
5 Comercial MS 8 0 2 6 4:12 2
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dourados 8 6 1 1 11:5 19
2 Ivinhema 8 3 2 3 14:9 11
3 Novoperario 8 3 2 3 11:10 11
4 Aquidauanense 8 3 1 4 9:15 10
5 Operario AC 8 1 2 5 9:15 5
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)