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Chapadao vs Naviraiense

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chapadao in this Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2022 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chapadao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Chapadao
30%
Draws
37%
Naviraiense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Naviraiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Naviraiense lately — more wins on the board than Chapadao.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Chapadao Clean Sheet 20%
Naviraiense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chapadao Naviraiense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 14
Draws 5 9
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.43 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Chapadao vs Naviraiense
3:2
Mar 27, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Chapadao
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chapadao 32 / 100
Naviraiense 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chapadao Naviraiense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Chapadao's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Naviraiense has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Chapadao stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Naviraiense
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Chapadao

(Home)
02 Apr
Ivinhema
2 : 4
Chapadao
26 Mar
Chapadao
0 : 3
Ivinhema
12 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Chapadao
05 Mar
Chapadao
1 : 1
Coxim
03 Mar
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Chapadao
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Naviraiense

(Away)
18 Mar
Naviraiense
0 : 4
Bataguassu
15 Mar
Bataguassu
0 : 1
Naviraiense
01 Mar
Aguia Negra
1 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Naviraiense
0 : 0
Operario MS
15 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Naviraiense
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