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Chapadinha vs Sao Jose (MA)

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chapadinha play Sao Jose (MA) in the Maranhense 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chapadinha averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.76 conceded. Sao Jose (MA) averaged 1.13 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. In past meetings, Chapadinha won 1, Sao Jose (MA) won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 15, 2023 ended 6:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Chapadinha and 1.67 for Sao Jose (MA). This points to a Chapadinha double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Chapadinha
16%
Draws
32%
Sao Jose (MA)
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Chapadinha

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Chapadinha picked up more points recently compared to Sao Jose (MA).
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.67 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Chapadinha Clean Sheet 13%
Sao Jose (MA) Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chapadinha Sao Jose (MA)
Matches Played 21 30
Wins 4 6
Draws 4 4
Losses 13 20
Goals Scored 1.1 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.76 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.20 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2023 Maranhense
Chapadinha vs Sao Jose (MA)
6:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chapadinha Compare

Top Goalscorer Cloves
4 Goals
Assists Leader Ferreira L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Sao Jose (MA) Compare

Top Goalscorer Diogo
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chapadinha 49 / 100
Sao Jose (MA) 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chapadinha Sao Jose (MA)

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Chapadinha or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18%
2.27
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chapadinha attacking → ← attacking Sao Jose (MA)

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chapadinha scored in 52% of their last 21 games.

Sao Jose (MA) let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 8.00 goals.

Chapadinha went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Sao Jose (MA) lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

16 Points in last 5 22
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
2.20 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sampaio Correa431014:310
2Pinheiro421112:47
3Chapadinha41128:84
4IAPE41125:74
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Maranhao42208:38
2Moto Club42025:56
3Cordino EC41215:65
4Sao Jose (MA)40044:250