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Chapecoense-SC vs Barra FC (Santa Catarina)

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Arena Condá
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Elvinho
16'
Sub
Elvinho In: Cleo Silva
Out: Elvinho
23'
Camilo Reijers

AI Match Summary

Chapecoense-SC play Barra FC (Santa Catarina) in the Catarinense. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chapecoense-SC averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Barra FC (Santa Catarina) averaged 0.63 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. In past meetings, Chapecoense-SC won 2, Barra FC (Santa Catarina) won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 8, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Chapecoense-SC and 1.00 for Barra FC (Santa Catarina). This points to a Barra FC (Santa Catarina) double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Chapecoense-SC
30%
Draws
34%
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chapecoense-SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Chapecoense-SC has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Barra FC (Santa Catarina).
  • Model forecasts a 36% win probability edge for Chapecoense-SC.
  • Cup tournament structure in Catarinense increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Chapecoense-SC Clean Sheet 20%
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chapecoense-SC Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
Matches Played 37 29
Wins 12 11
Draws 8 8
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 1.25 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Catarinense
Chapecoense-SC vs Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1:0
Mar 1, 2026 Catarinense
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) vs Chapecoense-SC
3:1
Feb 5, 2025 Catarinense
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) vs Chapecoense-SC
1:1
Oct 19, 2024 Copa Santa Catarina
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) vs Chapecoense-SC
1:2
Jan 31, 2024 Catarinense
Chapecoense-SC vs Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chapecoense-SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Jean Carlos
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chapecoense-SC 36 / 100
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chapecoense-SC Barra FC (Santa Catarina)

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chapecoense-SC scored in 57% of their last 37 games.

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Chapecoense-SC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chapecoense-SC VS Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Concordia1
Brusque2
Criciuma1
Chapecoense-SC2
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)2
Santa Catarina1
Camboriu3
Avai2
Semi-finals
Brusque1
Chapecoense-SC3
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)4
Camboriu1
Final
Chapecoense-SC2
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)3