Sport Picks
Chapecoense-SC vs Concordia Prediction & H2H Stats
Brazil
Copa Santa Catarina 2025 Arena Condá, Chapecó 
Match Events
45'
45'
Gustavo Modesto
90'
90'
Kaique Maciel
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
35%
19%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Chapecoense-SC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Chapecoense-SC carry the better recent record into this one.
- Chapecoense-SC are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Chapecoense-SC have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Concordia, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Chapecoense-SC Clean Sheet 68%
Concordia Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chapecoense-SC | Concordia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 16 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.18 | 0.8 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.56 | 1.77 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 14, 2026 Catarinense
Concordia vs Chapecoense-SC
1:2
Oct 15, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Chapecoense-SC vs Concordia
1:1
Sep 10, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Concordia vs Chapecoense-SC
0:1
Jan 26, 2025 Catarinense
Concordia vs Chapecoense-SC
2:1
Jan 10, 2025 Club Friendly
Chapecoense-SC vs Concordia
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chapecoense-SC Compare
Top Goalscorer Kaique Maciel
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Concordia Compare
Top Goalscorer Gustavo Modesto
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chapecoense-SC 95 / 100
Concordia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chapecoense-SC Concordia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chapecoense-SC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Chapecoense-SC's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 34 recent games.
Concordia has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Chapecoense-SC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Chapecoense-SC VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Chapecoense-SC
(Home) 26 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1 Chapecoense-SC
19 Sept
Atletico-MG
1 : 1 Chapecoense-SC
12 Sept
Chapecoense-SC
1 : 2 Internacional
06 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 2 Chapecoense-SC
30 Aug
Gremio
3 : 1 Chapecoense-SC
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
Chapecoense-SC
1 : 2 Internacional
23 Aug
Chapecoense-SC
1 : 0 Sao Paulo
16 Aug
Chapecoense-SC
3 : 3 Bahia
02 Aug
Chapecoense-SC
0 : 0 Cruzeiro
23 Jul
Chapecoense-SC
0 : 4 Flamengo RJ
Page 1 of 3
Concordia
(Away) 22 Feb
Criciuma
4 : 0 Concordia
12 Feb
Concordia
2 : 2 Criciuma
07 Feb
Brusque
2 : 1 Concordia
01 Feb
Concordia
0 : 0 Brusque
25 Jan
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
5 : 1 Concordia
Page 1 of 6
22 Feb
Criciuma
4 : 0 Concordia
07 Feb
Brusque
2 : 1 Concordia
25 Jan
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
5 : 1 Concordia
19 Jan
Criciuma
3 : 1 Concordia
08 Jan
Carlos Renaux
0 : 1 Concordia
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Figueirense | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16:6 | 14 |
| 2 | Marcilio Dias | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23:5 | 13 |
| 3 | Avai | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:16 | 4 |
| 4 | Barra FC (Santa Catarina) | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4:20 | 3 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina 2025 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Catarina | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Chapecoense-SC | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:6 | 7 |
| 3 | Brusque | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:6 | 5 |
| 4 | Concordia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:11 | 4 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina 2025 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blumenau | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13:6 | 13 |
| 2 | Joinville | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:6 | 10 |
| 3 | Carlos Renaux | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 4 | Nacao | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2:9 | 3 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina 2025 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15:5 | 14 |
| 2 | Tubarao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:6 | 8 |
| 3 | Caravaggio | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5:11 | 6 |
| 4 | Camboriu | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | 5 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina 2025 (Play Offs)
