Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Charleroi vs Leuven

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Traore A. K.
24' Event
Guiagon P.
(Penalty)
30'
Traore A. K.

AI Match Summary

The Jupiler Pro League game between Charleroi and Leuven finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Charleroi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Charleroi
15%
Draws
21%
Leuven
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Charleroi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Charleroi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Charleroi's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Jupiler Pro League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Charleroi Clean Sheet 18%
Leuven Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Charleroi Leuven
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 7
Draws 5 6
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.53 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Leuven
3:1
May 19, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Leuven
1:1
Apr 25, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Leuven vs Charleroi
0:2
Mar 14, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Leuven
0:2
Jul 27, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Leuven vs Charleroi
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Charleroi Compare

Top Goalscorer Van Den Kerkhof K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mbemba F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Leuven Compare

Top Goalscorer Gil O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Charleroi 85 / 100
Leuven 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Charleroi Leuven

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Charleroi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Charleroi found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Leuven conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Charleroi has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Charleroi VS Leuven
2.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Charleroi

(Home)
19 Sept
Charleroi
3 : 2
Cercle Brugge
13 Sept
Waregem
0 : 1
Charleroi
05 Sept
Charleroi
2 : 3
Royale Union SG
29 Aug
Kortrijk
1 : 3
Charleroi
22 Aug
Charleroi
2 : 0
KV Mechelen
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Leuven

(Away)
19 Sept
Leuven
2 : 0
RAAL La Louviere
12 Sept
Leuven
1 : 1
Cercle Brugge
06 Sept
SK Beveren
3 : 0
Leuven
03 Sept
Gent
1 : 0
Leuven
29 Aug
Leuven
1 : 2
St. Liege
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Royale Union SG 7 6 1 0 21:3 19
2 Gent 7 6 1 0 13:4 19
3 Club Brugge 7 6 0 1 15:3 18
4 Charleroi 7 6 0 1 15:7 18
5 Anderlecht 7 4 1 2 7:5 13
6 Waregem 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
7 St. Liege 7 3 2 2 13:12 11
8 Westerlo 7 3 1 3 15:16 10
9 SK Beveren 7 3 0 4 7:11 9
10 Genk 7 2 3 2 13:12 9
11 St. Truiden 7 2 2 3 12:12 8
12 Lommel SK 7 2 2 3 6:8 8
13 Antwerp 7 2 1 4 11:15 7
14 RAAL La Louviere 7 1 1 5 7:14 4
15 Leuven 7 1 1 5 5:13 4
16 Kortrijk 7 1 0 6 2:15 3
17 Cercle Brugge 7 0 3 4 8:14 3
18 KV Mechelen 7 0 3 4 5:14 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Challenger Pro League 2027/2028 (Main)