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Charleroi vs Leuven - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
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Match Events

20'
Traore A. K.
24' Event
Guiagon P.
(Penalty)
30'
Traore A. K.

AI Match Summary

The Jupiler Pro League game between Charleroi and Leuven finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Charleroi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Charleroi
20%
Draws
38%
Leuven
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Charleroi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Charleroi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Charleroi's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Jupiler Pro League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Charleroi Clean Sheet 20%
Leuven Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Charleroi Leuven
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.55 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Leuven
3:1
May 19, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Leuven
1:1
Apr 25, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Leuven vs Charleroi
0:2
Mar 14, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Leuven
0:2
Jul 27, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Leuven vs Charleroi
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Charleroi Compare

Top Goalscorer Van Den Kerkhof K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mbemba F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Leuven Compare

Top Goalscorer Gil O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Charleroi 36 / 100
Leuven 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Charleroi Leuven

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Charleroi found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Leuven conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Charleroi has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Charleroi VS Leuven
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Charleroi

(Home)
01 Nov
Charleroi
5 : 2
RAAL La Louviere
24 Oct
Antwerp
3 : 0
Charleroi
17 Oct
Renaissance Mons
0 : 1
Charleroi
11 Oct
St. Liege
0 : 1
Charleroi
19 Sept
Charleroi
3 : 2
Cercle Brugge
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Leuven

(Away)
01 Nov
St. Truiden
1 : 2
Leuven
24 Oct
Leuven
2 : 2
Lommel SK
17 Oct
Leuven
1 : 0
Francs Borains
11 Oct
Royale Union SG
1 : 1
Leuven
19 Sept
Leuven
2 : 0
RAAL La Louviere
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Brugge 10 9 0 1 26:8 27
2 Royale Union SG 10 8 2 0 29:7 26
3 Gent 10 8 1 1 19:6 25
4 Charleroi 10 8 0 2 21:12 24
5 Anderlecht 10 6 1 3 13:11 19
6 Genk 10 4 3 3 18:14 15
7 Lommel SK 10 4 3 3 13:11 15
8 Westerlo 10 4 2 4 25:25 14
9 St. Liege 10 3 3 4 15:16 12
10 KV Mechelen 10 3 3 4 13:18 12
11 Waregem 10 3 2 5 12:16 11
12 Antwerp 10 3 1 6 16:22 10
13 SK Beveren 10 3 1 6 13:20 10
14 Leuven 10 2 3 5 10:17 9
15 St. Truiden 10 2 2 6 18:21 8
16 RAAL La Louviere 10 2 1 7 13:23 7
17 Cercle Brugge 10 1 3 6 13:22 6
18 Kortrijk 10 1 1 8 4:22 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Challenger Pro League 2027/2028 (Main)