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Charleston vs Tampa Bay

USA USA

USL Championship Patriots Point Soccer Complex
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AI Match Summary

Charleston play Tampa Bay in the USL Championship. It looks like a close match. Recently, Charleston averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Tampa Bay averaged 1.62 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, Charleston won 3, Tampa Bay won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 10, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Charleston and 1.38 for Tampa Bay. This points to a Tampa Bay double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Charleston
27%
Draws
38%
Tampa Bay
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Tampa Bay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Charleston picked up more points recently compared to Tampa Bay.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Charleston Clean Sheet 17%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Charleston Tampa Bay
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 17
Draws 4 8
Losses 10 4
Goals Scored 1.86 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.43 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2026 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Charleston
2:2
Apr 18, 2026 USL Championship
Charleston vs Tampa Bay
1:1
Jul 26, 2025 USL Cup
Charleston vs Tampa Bay
2:1
May 10, 2025 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Charleston
1:3
Apr 5, 2025 USL Championship
Charleston vs Tampa Bay
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Charleston Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

Tampa Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Cruz S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Charleston 35 / 100
Tampa Bay 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Charleston Tampa Bay

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tampa Bay or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Charleston attacking → ← attacking Tampa Bay

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Charleston scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Tampa Bay let in goals in 48% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Charleston went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Tampa Bay lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 59
2.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tampa Bay1594224:1231
2Charleston1582530:2126
3Detroit City1473421:1424
4Louisville City1573525:2224
5Indy Eleven1263318:1221
6Pittsburgh Riverhounds1362515:1520
7Hartford Athletic1346310:1118
8Miami FC1546518:2418
9Rhode Island1244422:1616
10Birmingham Legion1528516:1914
11Brooklyn FC1433815:2412
12Loudoun United1418517:2811
13Sporting Jax15041119:414
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Orange County SC1576223:1627
2San Antonio FC1567220:1725
3New Mexico1363415:1421
4Oakland Roots1556424:2221
5Colorado Springs1454524:2219
6El Paso Locomotive1454525:2419
7FC Tulsa1354417:1619
8Lexington1353521:1618
9Phoenix Rising1545620:2217
10Sacramento Republic1244413:1216
11Las Vegas Lights1443721:2515
12Monterey Bay1543814:2215