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Charlton vs Derby - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Championship The Valley, London
Charlton Logo

Charlton

2 - 1
FT
Derby Logo

Derby

Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Szmodics S.
Assist: Morris C.
54'
Sub
Szmodics S. In: Mowatt A.
Out: Szmodics S.
59'
Sub
Carey S. In: Alli M.
Out: Carey S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Charlton in this Championship matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Charlton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Charlton
20%
Draws
40%
Derby
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Charlton have won more games recently than Derby.
  • Charlton are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Charlton Clean Sheet 68%
Derby Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Charlton Derby
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 7
Draws 8 5
Losses 13 17
Goals Scored 0.97 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Championship
Charlton vs Derby
2:1
Jan 20, 2026 Championship
Charlton vs Derby
1:2
Sep 30, 2025 Championship
Derby vs Charlton
1:1
Feb 27, 2024 League One
Derby vs Charlton
1:2
Feb 3, 2024 League One
Charlton vs Derby
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Charlton Compare

Top Goalscorer Jones L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Campbell T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Derby Compare

Top Goalscorer Szmodics S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Charlton 59 / 100
Derby 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Charlton Derby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Charlton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derby's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Charlton found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Derby lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Charlton VS Derby
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Charlton

(Home)
03 Nov
Charlton
0 : 1
Bolton
31 Oct
Middlesbrough
3 : 0
Charlton
24 Oct
Charlton
1 : 3
Norwich
17 Oct
Watford
2 : 0
Charlton
13 Oct
Burnley
2 : 2
Charlton
Page 1 of 6

Derby

(Away)
03 Nov
Derby
0 : 4
Norwich
31 Oct
Millwall
4 : 1
Derby
24 Oct
Sheffield Utd
1 : 1
Derby
17 Oct
Derby
0 : 1
Stoke City
14 Oct
QPR
4 : 1
Derby
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Middlesbrough 14 8 4 2 30:19 28
2 Wolves 14 8 3 3 25:17 27
3 Birmingham 14 7 5 2 26:13 26
4 Stoke City 14 8 2 4 22:17 26
5 Swansea 14 8 2 4 21:16 26
6 West Brom 14 7 4 3 20:15 25
7 Southampton 14 8 4 2 29:14 24
8 West Ham 14 6 5 3 36:21 23
9 Sheffield Utd 14 6 4 4 20:17 22
10 Portsmouth 14 6 4 4 19:16 22
11 QPR 14 5 6 3 22:17 21
12 Norwich 14 6 0 8 27:24 18
13 Millwall 14 5 3 6 23:24 18
14 Blackburn 14 5 3 6 20:22 18
15 Bristol City 14 5 3 6 16:19 18
16 Wrexham 14 4 5 5 17:19 17
17 Bolton 14 5 2 7 19:26 17
18 Cardiff 14 3 6 5 22:23 15
19 Lincoln City 14 4 3 7 14:24 15
20 Watford 14 4 2 8 13:23 14
21 Charlton 14 3 5 6 11:22 14
22 Burnley 14 1 7 6 18:26 10
23 Derby 14 1 4 9 11:29 7
24 Preston 14 1 2 11 12:30 5
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)