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Chavdar Troyan vs Lokomotiv Mezdra - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-West
Sat, Nov 14, 2026
VS
12:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chavdar Troyan host Lokomotiv Mezdra in the Third League - North-West. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: Chavdar Troyan at 1.04 goals for, 2.89 against; Lokomotiv Mezdra at 2.62 for, 1 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (0.69 - 1.69) back Lokomotiv Mezdra to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Chavdar Troyan
35%
Draws
39%
Lokomotiv Mezdra
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lokomotiv Mezdra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Lokomotiv Mezdra carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Lokomotiv Mezdra are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Third League - North-West form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Chavdar Troyan Clean Sheet 13%
Lokomotiv Mezdra Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chavdar Troyan Lokomotiv Mezdra
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 7 21
Draws 5 5
Losses 16 3
Goals Scored 1.04 2.62
Goals Conceded 2.89 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chavdar Troyan 11 / 100
Lokomotiv Mezdra 76 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chavdar Troyan Lokomotiv Mezdra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lokomotiv Mezdra Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chavdar Troyan found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

Lokomotiv Mezdra let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Chavdar Troyan went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Lokomotiv Mezdra has suffered 1 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chavdar Troyan VS Lokomotiv Mezdra
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Chavdar Troyan

(Home)
10 Oct
Akademik Svishtov
4 : 2
Chavdar Troyan
04 Oct
Chavdar Troyan
0 : 4
Marek
26 Sept
Bdin Vidin
3 : 1
Chavdar Troyan
19 Sept
Chavdar Troyan
1 : 0
Sevlievo
05 Sept
OFK Levski
0 : 0
Chavdar Troyan
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Lokomotiv Mezdra

(Away)
10 Oct
Yantra Polski Trambesh
2 : 2
Lokomotiv Mezdra
04 Oct
Lokomotiv Mezdra
2 : 3
Pirin Blagoevgrad
26 Sept
Partizan Cerven Brjag
2 : 2
Lokomotiv Mezdra
19 Sept
Lokomotiv Mezdra
3 : 0
Juventus Malchika
12 Sept
Akademik Svishtov
0 : 0
Lokomotiv Mezdra
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Akademik Svishtov 7 5 2 0 15:5 17
2 Kom Berkovitsa 8 3 4 1 16:13 13
3 Lokomotiv Mezdra 6 2 4 0 11:6 10
4 Yantra Polski Trambesh 7 2 4 1 17:15 10
5 Sevlievo 6 2 3 1 7:5 9
6 Bdin Vidin 7 3 0 4 14:16 9
7 Partizan Cerven Brjag 7 2 3 2 7:9 9
8 OFK Levski 6 2 2 2 7:5 8
9 Chavdar Troyan 6 2 2 2 6:8 8
10 Pavlikeni 8 2 0 6 7:13 6
11 Spartak Pleven II 8 1 3 4 15:27 6
12 Etar II 6 1 1 4 14:14 4
13 Juventus Malchika 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
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