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Chaves vs Academica

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Marcos Paulo
26'
Kaka
38' Event
Rodrigues A.

AI Match Summary

Academica in this Liga Portugal 2 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Academica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Chaves
15%
Draws
51%
Academica
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Academica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Academica lately — more wins on the board than Chaves.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Portugal 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Chaves Clean Sheet 12%
Academica Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chaves Academica
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 14
Draws 2 5
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.24 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Academica
1:4
Apr 23, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Academica
3:2
Dec 12, 2021 Liga Portugal 2
Academica vs Chaves
1:2
Apr 24, 2021 Liga Portugal 2
Academica vs Chaves
2:1
Dec 27, 2020 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Academica
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chaves Compare

Top Goalscorer Tavares W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Academica Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcos Paulo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rodrigues A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chaves 30 / 100
Academica 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chaves Academica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Chaves scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Academica let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Academica's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Chaves VS Academica
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Chaves

(Home)
13 Sept
Chaves
1 : 0
Feirense
30 Aug
FC Felgueiras
2 : 1
Chaves
23 Aug
Chaves
2 : 2
AFS
15 Aug
Sporting CP B
1 : 0
Chaves
08 Aug
Chaves
1 : 4
Academica
Page 1 of 6

Academica

(Away)
18 Sept
Real SC
1 : 4
Academica
11 Sept
Academica
0 : 3
Benfica B
05 Sept
Penafiel
4 : 1
Academica
29 Aug
Academica
0 : 2
Lusitania FC
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2
Academica
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitania FC 6 5 1 0 11:4 16
2 Penafiel 6 4 1 1 13:5 13
3 Sporting CP B 6 4 0 2 8:6 12
4 Vizela 6 3 2 1 7:4 11
5 Benfica B 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
6 Leiria 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
7 Leixoes 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
8 Academica 6 3 0 3 8:10 9
9 Tondela 6 3 0 3 7:6 9
10 SC Farense 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
11 Portimonense 6 2 1 3 4:6 7
12 AFS 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
13 FC Felgueiras 6 1 3 2 5:6 6
14 Torreense 6 1 3 2 7:9 6
15 Amarante FC 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Chaves 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
17 FC Porto B 6 1 1 4 4:13 4
18 Feirense 6 0 1 5 1:8 1
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2027/2028 (Main)