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Chaves vs AFS

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Pereira F.
43' Event
Marquinhos
Assist: Simoes T.
46'
Neiva G.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Portugal 2 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Chaves
30%
Draws
37%
AFS
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AFS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Chaves have won more games recently than AFS.
  • AFS are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Liga Portugal 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Chaves Clean Sheet 14%
AFS Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chaves AFS
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 2 12
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.3 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs AFS
2:2
Jul 11, 2026 Club Friendly
AFS vs Chaves
0:1
Jul 22, 2023 League Cup
AFS vs Chaves
2:1
Jul 15, 2023 Club Friendly
AFS vs Chaves
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chaves Compare

Top Goalscorer Marquinhos
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moreira Reis T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

AFS Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigo Pinho
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chaves 23 / 100
AFS 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chaves AFS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AFS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chaves's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: AFS conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Chaves remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chaves VS AFS
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Chaves

(Home)
20 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 3
Chaves
13 Sept
Chaves
1 : 0
Feirense
30 Aug
FC Felgueiras
2 : 1
Chaves
23 Aug
Chaves
2 : 2
AFS
15 Aug
Sporting CP B
1 : 0
Chaves
Page 1 of 6

AFS

(Away)
20 Sept
Sintrense
0 : 2
AFS
13 Sept
AFS
0 : 0
SC Farense
07 Sept
Lusitania FC
2 : 1
AFS
30 Aug
AFS
2 : 0
Feirense
23 Aug
Chaves
2 : 2
AFS
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitania FC 6 5 1 0 11:4 16
2 Penafiel 6 4 1 1 13:5 13
3 Sporting CP B 6 4 0 2 8:6 12
4 Vizela 6 3 2 1 7:4 11
5 Benfica B 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
6 Leiria 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
7 Leixoes 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
8 Academica 6 3 0 3 8:10 9
9 Tondela 6 3 0 3 7:6 9
10 SC Farense 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
11 Portimonense 6 2 1 3 4:6 7
12 AFS 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
13 FC Felgueiras 6 1 3 2 5:6 6
14 Torreense 6 1 3 2 7:9 6
15 Amarante FC 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Chaves 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
17 FC Porto B 6 1 1 4 4:13 4
18 Feirense 6 0 1 5 1:8 1
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2027/2028 (Main)