Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Chaves

Chaves

2 - 2

Lusitania FC

Our Tip

Match Events

17'

Pereira M.

Assist: Arsenio

18'

Pinho P.

30'

Alves R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 game between Chaves and Lusitania FC finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Chaves

Draws

Lusitania FC

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Chaves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Chaves come out ahead of Lusitania FC on wins alone.
Win probability leans Chaves's way, sitting at 90%.
Regular Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%

Chaves Clean Sheet 68%

Lusitania FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chaves	Lusitania FC
Matches Played	27	27
Wins	12	9
Draws	2	6
Losses	13	12
Goals Scored	1.63	0.88
Goals Conceded	1.38	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Liga Portugal 2

Chaves vs Lusitania FC

Possession: 54% - 52% Cards: 2 - 3

2:2

Aug 16, 2025 Liga Portugal 2

Lusitania FC vs Chaves

Possession: 43% - 57% Cards: 0 - 0

2:2

Oct 20, 2024 Taça de Portugal

Chaves vs Lusitania FC

Possession: 47% - 43% Cards: 1 - 1

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chaves Compare

Top Goalscorer Roberto

1 Goals

Assists Leader Almeida T.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Lusitania FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Pereira M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Martins R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chaves 95 / 100

Lusitania FC 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chaves Lusitania FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHA Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.33 goals per match.

Chaves's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Defensive concern: Lusitania FC conceded in 78% of 27 recent games.

Recent resilience: Chaves stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chaves VS Lusitania FC

1.63 Goals Scored 0.88

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13

63% Over 1.5 63%

63% Over 2.5 38%

38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maritimo	34	20	6	8	50:29	66
2	Academico Viseu	34	17	8	9	58:33	59
3	Torreense	34	18	5	11	46:33	59
4	Vizela	34	14	9	11	39:40	51
5	FC Porto B	34	15	6	13	41:42	51
6	Leiria	34	13	11	10	52:46	50
7	Leixoes	34	15	5	14	46:55	50
8	Feirense	34	12	10	12	37:40	46
9	Chaves	34	13	6	15	42:40	45
10	Benfica B	34	11	11	12	43:44	44
11	FC Felgueiras	34	11	11	12	34:38	44
12	Lusitania FC	34	11	10	13	44:52	43
13	Sporting CP B	34	13	3	18	41:34	42
14	Penafiel	34	11	8	15	37:39	41
15	Portimonense	34	11	7	16	39:49	40
16	SC Farense	34	10	10	14	31:37	40
17	Pacos Ferreira	34	9	12	13	34:48	39
18	Oliveirense	34	8	10	16	34:49	34